Grandouet will attempt to lay down a Champion
There is a question mark about his suitability to the track as he was beaten on both previous visits and that, it would seem, is the potential stumbling block to Nicky Henderson's youngster establishing himself as a genuine challenger to Hurricane Fly.
He was readily out-pointed by Sam Winner on his first trip to Prestbury Park and, on his most recent visit, he went to the front at the last bend still on the bridle but finished just third behind Zarkandar and Unaccompanied in the Triumph Hurdle.
I'm willing to forgive the latter performance as he didn't appear to enjoy being crowded by the big field that day, when his jumping was a shade compromised. That shouldn’t be a concern in this eight-runner field.
On official figures, he's improved a stone already this season and there looks to be more to come. Based on the weights they must carry, he comes out level best with Overturn, whom he will have to pass on the run up that hill if he's to claim today's prize.
In each of Overturn's last two races he has claimed the scalp of a former Champion Hurdler. In reality, that sounds an awful lot better than what it is. In the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on his most recent outing, he beat 2010 champion Binocular, which amounts to questionably little these days, while on his previous run in the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle at Ascot he had 2008 champion Katchit some 47 lengths back in third, which amounts to a lot less.
For what it's worth, For Non Stop finished second, beaten all of 27 lengths at Ascot and he went on to push Al Ferof to a neck on what was his chasing debut in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown last weekend. Overturn simply cannot be crabbed for what he has achieved thus far but he is as fit as a flea after a long mixed campaign and he seems rather unlikely to find much more improvement.
I feel like I may have been duped somewhat by Menorah last season. The 2010 Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner looked a progressive sort when carrying top weight to victory in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November of last year, before disposing of the challenge of Cue Card in this race.
But he was modest in the Champion Hurdle and a whole lot worse in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown, being well beaten behind Hurricane Fly both times. A chasing career looked the natural next step after his hurdling career appeared to hit the buffers, but plans for that were shelved early when he unseated his rider with a novices' event at Exeter at his mercy early last month.
He now returns to hurdling with plenty to prove. Today's race is a whole lot more demanding than last year's renewal and he must show that he's capable of further improvement. He may well have more to give, but I'm not convinced and will not be entertaining him at odds between 11-4 and 4-1.
Brampour was a reasonable ninth in last season's Triumph Hurdle and his form has taken a dramatic leap forward this season. But both victories have come in handicaps and he's still rated well below the best of these. In his favour is his age and his winning form at the track, but this demands a new level altogether.
Irish raider Pittoni was tenth behind Soldatino in the 2010 Triumph Hurdle and, while he has improved on the flat and over timber since then, he's still some way short of what's required here. Clerk's Choice was fourth behind Menorah in this race last year and hasn't done anything to suggest he's improved appreciably since then, while Stormy Weather is just a pound shy of four stone behind the top-rated horse in this race and has no conceivable chance.
It's not certain that the track is an issue for Grandouet, but today should confirm whether or not it is a problem. For exchange punters, there looks an obvious play. Take the odds of more than 3-1 on the exchanges and look to lay it off in running. His jumping can be a shade over-exuberant at times but provided he doesn't come a cropper early, he should travel to the bottom of the hill looking the most likely winner. That being the case, he'll trade short and exchange punters should reclaim their stake or guarantee themselves profit.
