Blazing can up tempo in National
Regular readers of this column will be aware I was particularly sweet on her chances in the Galway Plate and she obliged, under a fine ride by Paul Townend.
She had a lot going for her then, ground, trip and a grand weight. This test, however, is an entirely different ball game.
She is up two furlongs in trip, the surface will be testing, unlike Galway, but the biggest problem is the major hike in the weights the mare has suffered as a result of that win in the Plate.
Blazing Tempo was raised 12lbs and, as everyone knows, weight has the capacity to stop a train.
If all of that sounds overly pessimistic, then I don’t mean it to be because I still believe Blazing Tempo has a real shout.
I think she will stay three miles alright and the ground should be fine. I rode her in work at Willie Mullins’ last Saturday and she is in really good order.
I always wanted to ride Blazing Tempo in this race, although I have to admit to giving some thought to switching to another of Willie’s, Uncle Junior.
He has a nice weight (10-8) and will be all the better for a spin over flights at Sligo. The worry I have, however, is his tendency to make a mistake at a vital stage.
That has always been in him and if he blunders at any of the last five fences then he will find it hard to recover.
Willie’s third runner is top weight, Scotsirish. I’m not sure about him over three miles and have long felt he’s better on quicker ground.
Alfa Beat won the race a year ago, but I just can’t have him, off a mark 11lbs higher.
Dancing Tornado is a bit like Uncle Junior. He has the ability, but jumping has always been his problem.
Ballyholland won well at Galway, beating Lenabane. There isn’t much between the pair, but they are well exposed at this stage.
Dr Whizz has a chance, even if well beaten by Down In Neworleans at Galway. That last run, and a previous spin in the Plate, will stand to him, on the basis he is relatively inexperienced.
Bideford Legend has to be respected, considering he is in the care of Charles Byrnes. He’s been rested since finishing third to Tavern Times over hurdles at Galway.
My gut feeling, however, is that this is too classy a race for Bideford Legend and he won’t be good enough!
At one stage you would have regarded Muirhead as a certainty, off just 10-1. But, notwithstanding he won over hurdles at Ballinrobe last time, Muirhead has not gone anywhere near fulfilling the promise of his younger days.
Fosters Cross enjoyed a super Galway festival, but one would have to harbour big doubts about him getting three miles.
To conclude I feel Willie Mullins will win this National. I hope I can deliver aboard Blazing Tempo and regard Uncle Junior as the biggest danger.
I partner Rattan for Willie in the novice hurdle. In theory he could reverse Killarney placings with Bullock Harbour, meeting him on 3lbs better terms for a beating of half a length.
But I’m not convinced that will be the case. I thought Bullock Harbour had a bit hand and consider 3lbs won’t be enough.
I’ll be pleasantly surprised as well if Rattan can finish in front of Tavern Times, who impressed when winning at Galway, having found two miles too short at Sligo previously.
I love riding for Dermot Weld and am pleased to be on his Duc De Savoie in the maiden hurdle.
He’s clearly no star, but this does seem an especially weak race and I’ve enjoyed lots of luck for Dermot in the past.
I’ve been at Willie’s a fair bit over the last two weeks or so and he has an army of horses to unleash. I’d say many of them are about five or six weeks away from a run.
I was at Paul Nicholls’ last week and it is a similar story. There’s another army there and they are probably even more forward.
I have prospects then of a mighty winter, but the big question is can I stay sound? Here’s hopping, talk to you again real soon.
