Derrinstown or Dante? Recital or Carlton House?
Since 2000, the winner of the Dante has gone on to take the Epsom showpiece three times (North Light in 2004, Motivator in 2005, Authorized in 2007), while the Derrinstown boasts similar success (Sinndar in 2000, Galileo in 2001, High Chaparral in 2002).
Three of the other five winners in that period came from the Newmarket 2000 Guineas (only Sea The Stars in 2009 as winner) while last year’s winner, Workforce, came from the Dante (second at York), while Kris Kin came from Chester.
Bookmakers are convinced this year’s Epsom Derby winner danced his way to success in Thursday’s Dante at York but was there sufficient substance in Carlton House’s performance to warrant a slashing of his antepost odds?
Michael Stoute’s horse looked good when quickening up to see off favourite Seville and outsider Pisco Sour but the time was more than three seconds slower than that clocked by mare Midday, who carried 3lbs more over the same trip half an hour before.
Runner-up, Seville, finished second behind Casamento in last season’s Racing Post Trophy but he showed more grind than speed that day. If Christophe Soumillon had sent his mount for home on the turn into the straight in the Dante, the colt’s stamina may have told.
Aidan O’Brien, who trains Seville, has a good idea where he stands with Derrinstown winner Recital. By Montjeu, the colt hung towards the rails when sent to the front in the closing stages of Sunday’s race but time-wise there was merit in the performance.
As a Group 1 winner, he possesses the class to go close in the Epsom Derby and yet he’s four points bigger than the favourite.
Recently there’s been a substantial gamble on French challenger Pour Moi but, on a line through Bubble Chic, Recital appears to have his measure.
I suspect the Derby winner won a recognised Derby trial in the last seven days but whether that be Carlton House or Recital, when betting comes down to value, Recital must be the option.
