The vibes are that Kauto is back to his best, and I’m as confident as I can be
Paul Nicholls and I very much think he is, but now he has to go and translate some superb homework out onto the racecourse.
I was at the track good and early yesterday morning and had a sit on Kauto Star. We did two nice canters, ironically in behind, arguably, his main rival The Listener, who was ridden by trainer, Nick Mitchell.
I could not have been more pleased and can tell you Kauto felt great and looks a million dollars. I know he has to leave two below-par efforts at the back-end of last season behind him.
He never travelled at all in the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Denman and, as a result, had a hard race. I failed to factor that in when we arrived at Aintree subsequently.
I went to the front an hour too soon and we were worried out of it in the end by Old Vic. I have to say, however, that he didn’t move through the race at Aintree as well as he can.
My big worry today is not the opposition, but the ground. I felt it was most testing yesterday and I fear this developing into a real slog.
I know Kauto handles soft ground, but there can be a hell of a difference between English soft and Irish heavy. It will be interesting to see what The Listener does, presumably from the front.
I will obviously follow him, but, as to how close, that will depend on how fast he is going. If you go too quick on this surface you will simply walk home.
Anyway, all the vibes are that Kauto is right back to his best and, considering the ground, I’m as confident as I dare be.
Paul also sends over Noland for the Grade 3 chase and he should run a big race. It has been well documented that he’s had his problems, but this is a horse with a big engine, who might just be best caught fresh.
That said, this seems very competitive and I feel if we beat Finger Onthe Pulse, who was good at Limerick, then we’ll nearly win.
I cannot summon up much enthusiasm for Osirixamix in the opener on the basis he will struggle on the ground, if his run at Tralee is a reliable guide.
Equally, I’m no more than hopeful regarding both Mister Lucky and Ross Accord, but Arc Bleu is a live one in the valuable handicap hurdle.
He has a smashing weight, 10-3, and I think will like the ground. He comes here having finished second in the English Cesarewitch at Newmarket last time.
He seemed to get two and a quarter miles then, which really indicates that here’s a horse who stays forever. But I’m not so sure.
The last time he ran over flights was at Punchestown in May and I was aboard. We were beaten into second that day and I formed the definite impression he didn’t stay two and a half. We could waffle on all day, but the bottom line is he has a great chance.
I head south to Cork tomorrow for six rides, but there’s certainly no good thing amongst them. I’m on bothar Na in the Cork National and if he’s in the first three it will be be a decent effort.
He ran well enough at Thurles over hurdles and will strip fitter now. To my eyes, though, this is a massive puzzle.
I suppose Lethal Weapon will start favourite for the three-year-old hurdle, but I’d say I’ll make him go on Seenya. She made a mistake three out when second at Punchestown and then came home relly well.
I couldn’t be in any way confident about Sonnium or Final Question, but Holly Tree has some sort of life in the novice chase.
He’s ultra-consistent and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. But this is a hot contest and we do have to carry top weight.
My best chance of the day is probably Lilywhitedancer in the maiden hurdle. I schooled him round Thurles recently and he was good. Granted luck in running, in a big field, he should go close.
Next week is going to be busy. I could be at Plumpton or Warwick on Monday and it’s possible I’ll be teaming up with Twist Magic at Exeter on Tuesday.
It will be Chepstow or Downpatrick on Wednesday and I’m alreadyy looking forward to Pomme Tiepy at Thurles on Thursday.
