Katiyra value to reverse Epsom form
The Ballydoyle Maestro is currently enjoying the most fantastical, almost surreal, season and his attempt to re-write history continues at the Curragh this weekend where he will be attempting to maintain his one hundred percent record in this year’s Irish Classics.
After Henrythenavigator took the 2000 Guineas, Halfway To Heaven the 1000 Guineas and Frozen Fire the Derby, Moonstone will head the Ballydoyle team on the trip to Headquarters for the Darley Irish Oaks tomorrow afternoon having run-up behind Look Here in the Epsom equivalent.
Sent off a relatively un-fancied 25-1 shot having disappointed behind Lush Lashes in the Musidora at York, Moonstone belied those odds with a fine effort. However, it must be clear that she posed little or no threat to winner Look Here that day and remains a maiden after three runs.
In any other hands that would all but put a line through her chances but there are some similarities between that lady and one of the stable’s stars of last season, Peeping Fawn. The latter took four attempts to win her maiden but followed that with a second placing in the Epsom Oaks and four successive Group 1 victories — including the Irish Oaks.
Though only the winner of a maiden, Gentle On My Mind made a big impression when beating stable-companion Love To Dance at Leopardstown recently and she appears to be the stable second-string. However, she takes a huge hike in class and would appear very much up against it.
Epsom also-rans, Adored and Ice Queen, along with Love To Dance and Perihelion complete the Ballydoyle team for the fourth Classic.
Taking the Epsom form literally, Moonstone would appear to have nearly three lengths in hand of the John Oxx trained Katiyra but it’s clear that the latter did not act around the quirky Epsom downs and ran a remarkable race to take third place behind Look Here.
To figure out whether or not she can reverse form with the runner-up, there are a couple of key questions one must ask. Firstly, did Katiyra lose three lengths in failing to handle the downhill section of Epsom that day and, secondly, can we conclusively say that she will stay the stiff twelve furlongs of the Curragh on rain softened ground?
One would argue that Katiyra did indeed lose at least three lengths at Epsom but it’s less clear whether or not she’ll stay the distance. A winner of a seven-furlong maiden as a juvenile, she was beaten on her seasonal debut over a mile before making the step up to a mile and a half last time.
The evidence of that one run suggests that she did indeed get the distance but, such was the dominance of the winner at Epsom, it would be wrong to be too dogmatic.
Dermot Weld saddles two of his best fillies for the race with promoted 1000 Guineas runner-up Mad About You seemingly having more convincing claims than stable companion Chinese White.
The latter travelled like the winner in the Epsom Oaks but faded inexplicably in the last couple of furlongs. It’s uncertain whether something small went wrong with her that day or whether the petrol tank emptied quickly but, either way, it leaves her with plenty to prove right now.
Mad About You also has her stamina to prove at this stage. She stepped up to ten furlongs for the first time when a fine second behind the potentially brilliant Promising Lead in the Pretty Polly last time out. She was well held by Michael Stoute’s winner that day but there was much merit in the defeat and she has prospects if she gets the trip.
There are three British challengers making the trip to the Curragh but the most interesting foreign runner could be the Andre Fabre trained Gagnoa. Her trainer is to French racing what Aidan O’Brien is to the Irish scene and her presence is very much respected.
A daughter of Sadler’s Wells, Gagnoa will not mind some cut underfoot and her stamina is all but assured. She filled the runner-up spot behind the imperious Zarkava in the French Oaks and could represent the best each-way value tomorrow.
However, it would be somewhat disappointing were the home team unable to stave off the outside challenge and Moonstone and Katiyra look set to battle it out. Provided conditions do not deteriorate overnight, the John Oxx trained Katiyra represents the value to reverse form with the Epsom runner-up, denying O’Brien what would be a remarkable quartet in the process.
