5 Key Questions Ahead of this weekend's Cup Finals
Neptune’s Andrew Gardner and Derek Murphy with Elijah Tilman of UCC Blue Demons.
Looking at league form or past matchups does very little for Cup Finals. Unfortunately, we learnt that the hard way in 2018 and 2019 when we beat our Cup Final opposition easily the week before the final, only to come undone on the big stage. Demons and Ballincollig played back in early October and both teams have changed Americans since that Ballincollig win.
Demons in fact have looked a completely different team in the Cup compared to the League. Beating league leaders Maree and Star on their journey to the final, it’s hard to understand how they are bottom of the Southern Conference but injuries and changes in personnel have made them disjointed at times. Ballincollig haven’t set the world on fire so far in the league and yet the defending league champions are consistently getting results and you feel they have been building for this Cup run for the whole season.
On the Women’s side, Brunell are flying high at the top of the league and based on league form alone are heavy favourites. We can probably take more from the game between these two teams as it was only in mid-December. Fr Mathew’s controlled the game throughout, and it took a huge late game collapse to allow Brunell snatch victory.
Mathew’s controlled Brunell’s Americans on the day and it was only some late turnovers and some huge shots from Irish international Edel Thornton that saw Brunell come out on top. The big question will be can Fr Mathew’s take the confidence from how close they pushed Brunell, or have the Nellies learnt their lesson from the test before Christmas and are better prepared to deal with it this time around.
This is the first men’s final for over 15 years with two Americans on the floor for each team. The impact of the American’s has been seen already throughout the year, particularly in late game situations. Both finalists have a very clear hierarchy within their teams and their Irish players have bought into being complimentary players rather than stars.
For Demons we know that Elijah Tillman will be a big presence early on and as the game gets tighter down the stretch Seventh Woods will have the ball in his hands every offense. For Ballincollig, the majority of their scoring comes through Andre Nation and Shawndale Jones and again when offense is needed late the ball will be in their hands.
What this means is that we’ll likely see both teams play a lot of zone as they protect their Americans, but it also raises the question of what x-factor beyond the Americans can make a deciding impact. For the past ten years, only three times have a team won the cup without a major Irish star (Colin O’Reilly, Isaac Westbrooks, Jason Killeen), Interesting two of those three wins have been the last two years and the common factor has been a dominant American point guard who ran the show (Jarrett Haines for Maree and Aaron Calixte for Tralee). Demons have the American point guard to continue that trend, but they’ll need to keep it close to make use of him.
In the women’s game the American influence is also going to be big. Shannon Brady had one of her best games of the season in the almost upset of Brunell pre-Christmas. She has the size and physicality to cause Brunell issues but Brunell’s American duo of Jayla Johnson and Kyaja Williams have athleticism and have caused teams so much trouble all year. The Arena’s rims can lead to more erratic rebounds than normal and Brunell’s bigs can rebound outside of their zone better than anyone in the country. If Fr Mathews survive on the boards and Ariel Johnson continues her recent scoring form Mathews have a chance.
Last weekend Demons struggled against a team built very similarly to Ballincollig. When Tralee went to a big zone, Demons had no answer. Ballincollig will go to zone a lot and Demons need Tala Fam or David Lehane to utilise the high post to both score and critically to find Elijah Tillman under the basket. If Demons are too reliant on the three, they’ll need an above average shooting night to win.
On the other end we’ll likely see a lot of zone too, especially when Tillman is on the floor. Demons need to find a way to extend that zone and try to force turnovers so they can run. Danny O’Mahony has done a good job of varying up his defense and he’ll have to do it again on Saturday.
Ballincollig have the experience to navigate whatever is thrown at them, but they’ve equally had some questionable decision making in recent months. When Tralee were aggressive defensively in the fourth quarter of the semi-final Ballincollig became stagnant and struggled. Can Demons take Ballincollig out of their nice passing game and force Ballincollig’s role players to score to beat them?
Outside of the Americans, where will teams be hoping to find a game changing performance? The players don’t have to score big to change the game, but they can make a huge impact in other ways. For Brunell one player to look at is Danielle O’Leary. She’s been on this stage before but now has a more secondary role. She’s a brilliant passer and can shoot.
Critically O’Leary is an emotional leader and a few plays going her way will spark Brunell. For Mathew’s former coach Niamh Dwyer has come out of retirement and her steady play and 11 points were huge. Niamh and her sister Grainne can feed off each other both good and bad and Niamh knocking down a couple of shots would give Pat Price’s team a huge lift.
For Ballincollig Adrian O’Sullivan is the most important player on the team, without him the two Americans have to bring the ball up all game. O’Sullivan has scored well, and a huge amount is on his shoulders. The spark though could come from any of the experienced Irish trio of Ciaran, Adrian or Keelan Cairns. All can shoot the ball and will get shots against Demons zone. Once one or two go in it will lift the crowd and force Demons into defensive decisions.
Demons need a performance from Tala Fam if they are to win but the spark is more likely to come from Kyle Hosford or Scott Hannigan. Scott has shot the ball brilliantly in recent weeks and is fearless. Demons need Kyle’s decision making to take pressure off Seventh Woods. If Kyle is able to influence the game in his 20-25 minutes, it will be a big plus for Demons.
In the men’s game I think turnovers could decide the game. Neither team are brilliant from three and both are likely to play against a lot of zone. In a half-court game, it could be low scoring.
In the women’s game, I think pace of play could be huge. It was a high scoring game in December, but Fr Mathew’s are probably hoping for a lower scoring dogfight that will suit an underdog. Brunell have the athletes if the pace suits them, they could be hard to stop.
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