On the Manor watch with Monty

SPORTS writers like nothing better than second guessing thes electors charged with picking teams for major events.

Many would deem it premature to be looking 11 months ahead and speculating on the make-up of the European team that will try to wrest back the Ryder Cup from the Americans at Celtic Manor next October.

However, this team is different from almost all others in that nine of the 12 places are decided on the results achieved over the preceding 13 months with the remaining three handed out by captain Colin Montgomerie.

The process has been underway since the first week in September and if the automatic nine were to be finalised right now they would consist of Pádraig Harrington, Simon Dyson, Lee Westwood, Ross McGowan off the World Ranking points list and Alexander Noren, Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Michael Jonzon from the European Tour points list.

Six of the nine have yet to play in the Ryder Cup and of this group, only Harrington and Westwood could be considered relatively sure of their places. It would be a major turn-up if the likes of McGowan, Cabrera-Bello and Jonzon remain in contention.

I expect to see Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson to also establish themselves as “bankers” leaving seven places still to play for.

And that’s why the 3 Irish Open at Killarney over the next August weekend will be crucial in deciding the composition of the European team. As 3 chief executive Robert Finnegan pointed out, those players hoping to make a late challenge are likely to take part, adding further spice to what already sounds like a fabulous week of golf.

The next two into my likely side for Celtic Manor are Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer. The 20 year-old Ulsterman seems to have all the right credentials to succeed in the Ryder Cup, a point he made when proving such an inspirational figure for Britain & Ireland in the recent Vivendi-Seve Trophy victory over Continental Europe.

As for Kaymer, hopefully the foot injury he sustained in a go-karting accident, won’t prevent him from following in the illustrious footsteps of fellow-German Bernhard Langer. Kaymer was still limping and clearly a little rusty after his lengthy lay-off when teeing it up for the first time in a couple of months in the Castello Masters in Spain at the weekend.

However, he still came within a shot of forcing a play-off against Michael Jonzon. Then you have a group of players who demonstrated at Valhalla in 2008 that they have what it takes to cope with the extraordinary pressure that is part and parcel of a modern-day Ryder Cup. Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Justin Rose did themselves proud in a losing side and Luke Donald also proved himself in these trying circumstances at The K Club in 2006. But none of the quartet has had a particularly auspicious 2008 and with the certainty of at least two more rookies entering the equation, some of those already mentioned will give way to new faces.

Kaymer and McIlroy, of course, qualify in that category whileothers to keep an eye out for are the English trio Ross Fisher, Simon Dyson and Chris Wood, Italian Francesco Molinari, Spaniard Alvaro Quiros and Sweden’s Alexander Noren.

It could be that one or two of those who appear to have dropped out of the reckoning could also stage a comeback over the coming months. Montgomerie has even mentioned Bernhard Langer as one of his “wild cards” and we all know that Darren Clarke is still capable of matching the best if he only could get his putter back into working order. Certainly, Monty knows better than most how powerfully Clarke and Lee Westwood click as a fourball/foursomes pairing at Ryder Cup time.

The captain must certainly be delighted at the strength in depth at his disposal.

You don’t make the cut these days on the European Tour unless you are level par or in some cases three or four shots better after 36 holes. You have to believe that Monty will be leading a really strong side in Wales.