Éamonn Fitzmaurice: Make All-Ireland final chaotic Mayo. Early and often
EMBRACE THE CHAOS: Mayo's Ryan O'Donoghue celebrates his 6th minute goal in the semi-final against Louth. Pic: Ray McManus/Sportsfile
“It was getting late, early.” - Yogi Berra
THE last time Kerry and Mayo met in an All-Ireland final was 2006. When Colm Cooper scored his goal in the 26th minute the score stood at 3-6 to 1-0.
Andy Moran will want to avoid this at all costs. Early Kerry goals will bring a sense of inevitability to the contest that his young team, and their battle-scarred supporters could do without. He will have been reminded of this last weekend watching the hurling final. When an experienced favourite gets a run on an underdog it can get nasty, fast.
He will want his team to stay in the game early. Take the challenge to Kerry. Avoid silly mistakes that an experienced Kingdom side will ruthlessly punish. Easier said than done.
To win, Mayo’s best chance is to turn this game into a chaotic pinball game, where they break even in the midfield war. If Kerry get to play on their terms and do as they wish, it could be a long day out for the westerners. Moran is picking players with athletic profiles that can play that gung-ho style of football.
They have at least one player in every line with top level pace. Kerry have no shortage of pace either, but the challenge for the defending All-Ireland champions is that their injury-interrupted season has meant they have been managing their way through games, winning through experience, rather than forcing the conversation. They may have to here.
There are so many vital areas that will be decisive Sunday. Kickouts, experience and lack thereof, legs, energy, bench impact and star performers among them. For the purposes of this article, I am going to focus on the two key areas that may well decide whether Sam is heading to Kerry for the 40th time and a back to back All-Ireland or whether he will be going to Mayo for the first time in 75 years.
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A decisive factor will be how each side's defensive setup deals with the opposition attack. This will be fascinating and I can’t wait to see how this clash of styles plays out. I don’t think the match-ups are ideal or nailed on at either end. However, it is how the respective structures fare out that will most interest me.
Last year prior to the final, I couldn’t see how Donegal’s deep-sitting zonal defence would win the All-Ireland. And so it played out, with the decision to leave Paudie Clifford off to pull the strings becoming the signature memory of the game.
Ironically, Kerry are now back in the final playing a deep zone of their own, which has become more extreme than last year's version as the year has progressed. They defend from the arc in. For the most part it is effective, and ultimately is getting results. They aren’t conceding goals, but they are conceding goal chances.
They are also surrendering a huge amount of shots at the posts. In their last two games both Dublin and Tyrone got off 36 shots. Dublin’s shooting accuracy finished at a lowly 50% while Tyrone were at a more respectable 62%. If they continue to give up that amount of shots and should Mayo have a day with their shooting it could prove difficult to outstrip them.
For this final, Kerry have a conundrum. Mayo have inside threats that are all playing well in Ryan O’Donoghue, Darragh Beirne and Kobe McDonald. When Tommy Conroy is introduced at half-time he adds a further direct dimension to their attack, and further increases the man-to-man responsibilities, which will be challenging to balance with their zonal setup.
Furthermore, Mayo under Moran have developed a fantastic two-point game. They have 28 two-pointers in championship so far, compared to three in last year's entire championship campaign. Just over one third of their scores come from twos. Additionally, the part that makes them hard to defend is that they have multiple two-point threats. Nine players have kicked twos in championship. Five of that nine (O’Donoghue, Jack Carney, Jordan Flynn, Beirne and Kobe) have kicked three or more, making them a genuinely consistent threat. Carney has six from play.
If any of those players get the ball outside of the arc, Kerry will have to push out of their block and go at them, to at least put pressure on the shot. When O’Donoghue is on the 40 (after Conroy comes on), Flynn and Carney could all be lined up outside the arc giving three distinct problems to the Kerry rearguard. Should they push aggressively Mayo may look to go inside to Conroy, Kobe and Beirne.
Since the two-pointer has been introduced there have been 80 scored into the Canal End and 34 into Hill 16 in championship. This affects the way teams defend. They can sit deeper and narrower when defending the Hill. They have to push out more when defending the Canal End meaning the scoring opportunities both for twos and for goals increase at that side. For this reason I think Moran would ideally like to play into the Canal End in the second half when Conroy will be on the pitch.
On the other side, and in stark contrast, Mayo tend to defend one-on-one when they are one pass away from the ball. They go man-on-man and when the ball moves they cheat in from the weak side to provide cover and double ups where possible, thereby defending two thirds of the width of the pitch.
It remains a work in progress but has improved significantly since they have hit Croke Park. They too have yet to concede a goal there. Kerry will look to space out those one-on-ones, attack into the arc and beat a man to open up shots. Of course they also possess multiple two-point threats.
I could also see them at times withdrawing Paudie and David outside the 45 metre line to make it a nine v nine inside it. Considering the quality and pace of the other Kerry players that would be a big ask to defend against in the prairie spaces of Croke Park. Finally, to test Mayo defensively, Kerry may revisit one from the an old playbook where they challenge Mayo aerially early in the contest. This worked in 2004, 2006 and in 2014.
Mayo are the market leaders in pressing high up the pitch. When they get this right they are a nightmare to deal with, as Louth found out in the semi-final. It is also a joy to watch. It gives their supporters something to get behind. They go after the opposition in sync.
Any player who is one pass away is tagged. They put pressure on the opposition's skill set as they attempt to force turnovers. They try not to get beaten by the man in possession and they don’t foul. They use the sideline to trap players and really go after them there.
Ryan O’Donoghue leads their press upfront and is an excellent tackler. He sprints to the tackle and makes contact thereby generating intensity which leads to the chaos they thrive in. Louth and Cork both really struggled with it. Martin McNally is an excellent referee and tends to let the game flow which suits this style. If he also polices the steps rule it will give further oxygen to that pressing game.
On the flip side when that press gets broken, as we saw at times in the Meath and Monaghan games and in the league game in Austin Stack Park last March, Mayo are really exposed. If Kerry get even half of the goal chances Monaghan got it will be lights out.
I expect the reigning All-Ireland champions to have practised coming out against this type of press in the last fortnight. One-twos, support off the shoulder, a little pop kick over the top of the press or a switch of play away from the press will have been rehearsed.
All of Kerry’s backs can play ball and will need to take on responsibility to drive out rather than engaging in periods of pass the parcel. Expect Kerry to target Kobe and Tommy Conroy when he is on the pitch as both are less inclined to tackle with the manic intensity that such a system requires. When the press works it is fantastic but the issue for Mayo is that it is only as good as it weakest link.
If I closed my eyes and tried to envisage what the new game would look like when the initial set of proposals from the Football Review Committee passed through Special Congress in December 2024, it would be Mayo 2026 I would have visualised. A high octane, hard pressing, gung-ho style of football.
Kick when you can, run when you have to. Kick two-pointers when the opposition sit in, score goals when they push out and go after the opposition all over the pitch. They are a joy to watch and Sunday in Croke Park will tell us whether that style can win an All-Ireland.
On the other hand Kerry have become more careful and conservative this year as the season has progressed. They have hardly kicked the ball in Croke Park, as their measured style has focused on the percentages and has got results. Mayo won’t allow them to play possession football.
Paudie won’t be given the freedom of Croke Park, with Enda Hession probably his shadow for the day. It will be harder for them to slow it down and set up attacks with a definite shot at the end of it. It will be much more frantic. Ironically, this will force Kerry out of their lethargy and we may see the very best of them, playing kicking football with a swagger.
Should this happen we will be in for a cracking contest, with Kerry to win.
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