Éamonn Fitzmaurice: Why Kerry must avoid overconfidence as All-Ireland quarter-finals begin
SEE YA SATURDAY: Kerry manager Jack O'Connor with his Tyrone counterpart Malachy O'Rourke after last year's All-Ireland SFC semi-final at Croke Park in Dublin. Pic: Seb Daly/Sportsfile
For the final month, the football championship decamps to The Big House. We have been spoiled this year, and hopefully the entertainment continues apace. At this stage last year the excitement dropped off as the game changed with the best teams playing each other in Croke Park.
Kickout retention and possession phases went up with tackles and turnovers decreasing. There was at least a six-point margin at the end of six of the seven games during the Croke Park series, meaning it lacked those nip and tuck games that have kept us on the edge of our seats throughout this summer. I was at both the Leinster final and the Dublin Donegal battle at headquarters and those telltale signs were thankfully absent.
Conventional wisdom has Kerry ahead of a chasing pack but this summer has routinely taught us already that anything is possible. The remaining eight teams will all fancy advancing this weekend. Here's a consideration or observation on each of them.
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Cork’s tactical flexibility against Donegal in the second half in Ballybofey was commendable. That type of keep ball isn’t their usual way of playing and wouldn’t suit a majority of their players, who like to go fast. That kind of a tactical victory, that goes against the traditional grain of a county, can be deeply satisfying internally for a group, even if not aesthetically pleasing externally. It builds a massive belief. They will need to tweak again Saturday. That approach would not suit playing Mayo who would hunt them down, force turnovers and go the other way. Cork may look to exploit Mayo’s aggression by drawing them towards the ball and leaving space inside. They did this to effect in the first half of the league final against Meath last March, their last visit to Croke Park. They brought everyone except Chris Óg Jones out towards the 45 leaving space behind to either run into or pop ball inside to Jones. Mayo will give up goal chances. Whether Cork can take them or not may decide the contest.
On more than one occasion this season Andy Moran has spoken to the press pack about Croke Park football. This would suggest that they have been building a game plan and profile of player suited to headquarters. We have seen flashes of their high octane game in action throughout the summer - in some games more than others - where they like to go fast in possession, and press hard without. How they defend against Cork will be decisive. They press hard all over the pitch. It is wonderful to watch. However, they have a tendency to lunge at the ball at the back, taking themselves out of the play thus opening up goalscoring opportunities. But for Jack Livingston’s repeated interventions over the last few weeks they may never have gotten a chance to test their Croke Park legs. They will also need to nail down the prolific Cork's Stephen Sherlock, and his two point ability, in particular. Jason Foley’s performance in the Munster final will have been clipped this week as an exemplar for his man-marker.
Páidí was always great for word plays, some more colourful than others. The week of a big championship game he often advised us to approach the game with a cautious confidence. Confident in your personal ability and that of your team mates, but cautious about the opposition's potential. This week everywhere I have gone in Kerry there has been an over-confidence that we as a people are unaccustomed to. Confidence? Yes. Pessimism? Yes. Over-confidence? No. There will be a small Kerry support in Croke Park Saturday evening judging by the conversations I've had. This time last year after David’s call, thousands travelled for the Armagh quarter-final and made their presence felt on the day. Right now we seem to be complacent as a county, but presumably not as a team. All-Irelands are rarely a straightforward march to Sam, and any Tyrone team in Croke Park always requires Páidí’s approach. A careless rather than cautious confidence simply won’t work.
Of the three Ulster teams that Kerry took down in Croke Park last summer to win the All-Ireland, Tyrone put up the best showing. They did give up a host of goal chances and their shooting accuracy was down but they got a lot right. They hugely disrupted Shane Ryan’s kickout, Kerry only won 52% that day as opposed to 71% in the final. Tyrone’s shooting accuracy was at 47% which won’t get it done in a semi-final. That pattern of inaccuracy has persisted this year but last day out against Mayo it stood at 58%. They have the quality of finishers to push that number further north. To win against the All-Ireland champions they will need to, and a few two pointers will have to be part of their final total.
On more than one occasion I have described Monaghan as the ultimate shape shifters in football. It is part of their identity. This year that has been epitomised by the brilliant Stephen O’Hanlon. I have enjoyed watching him for a few years now, with my only slight criticism being that he needed to be more consistent. His re-positioning as a man-marker has been a master stroke by Gabriel Bannigan. When the opposition has the ball he is negating key men. He has snuffed out both Sam McCartan and Darragh Heneghan in the last two matches, both of whom were previously having stellar seasons. His basketball background as a point guard is clearly helping his defence, where his body shape and foot movement are to be admired. He spent a year in the States with Trinity-Pawling, in New York. While there he also ran for their 200m and 400m teams, which is wellsuited to counter-attacking when they get the ball back. By coming from a deeper position and coming onto the ball when Monaghan are in possession he is causing havoc. Against Westmeath he scored three points and also assisted Jack McCarron’s goal from one of those deep runs. Along with Tom O’Sullivan, he is the ultimate two-way player, in terms of being able to both defend and attack at an elite level.
When Sam Mulroy began making a name for himself nationally it was as a high scoring forward, who was lethal from placed balls. His game has evolved considerably in the meantime. Now he is critical in all aspects of Louth’s game. He makes himself available for kickouts, is the first line of defence without the ball when they set up around the arc, forces turnovers, assists, drives forward and is still scoring freely, but critically now has ample assistance in sharing that load. He even cleared an Armagh goal chance off the line in the first half of their famous win in Inniskeen. Considering how he now plays the week off will have done him no harm. Have Monaghan anyone that could go everywhere with him and hurt him going the other way? The aforementioned Stephen O’Hanlon...?
While the old soldiers are still driving Dublin, the younger players are now finally comfortable and performing. Nathan Doran is a loss. I have been impressed with him going back as far as the first night of the league. However, Charlie McMorrow, Eoin Kennedy and Seán Guiden are all playing really well. Guiden is a shooter and provides a two-point threat, something the Metropolitans have lacked. It was amazing how structured Dublin were at the back all of a sudden last weekend. Previously, they were disorganised and porous. Dealing with Galway’s variety of two point threats while simultaneously accounting for the danger of Rob Finnerty, Shane Walsh, Matthew Tierney and eventually Comer close to goals will test that structure to the limit on Sunday. Dublin may be the side most likely to suffer fatigue from their third weekend in a row.
Pádraic Joyce is playing with a stacked deck for the first time in a couple of seasons. Opportunity knocks for his talented and experienced squad. One of the decisions he has to make is with regard to how to optimally use Damien Comer, who is thankfully injury free and looks back to his best. He would appear to be accepting of his impact sub role and may no longer have a full game in him. Interestingly, the question is does his style suit a second-half introduction or a start? He is at his best and causes havoc when direct ball, low or high, is being rained in his direction. Late in a game this works when chasing a lead and chaos is required as the opposition fatigue. However, if Galway are in in control of the match on the scoreboard is it the best use of him, where a more measured game suits? He can still play in a slower attack and is a serious kickout target regardless of the game state. However, is there an argument to start him, go for the jugular with him on the pitch and replace him early in the second half?
Sincerest condolences to Paul Clancy’s wife Johanna, his children Ellen and Finn, his family and the Galway GAA community on the heartbreaking news of his passing. I marked Paul a couple of times over the years, including at times during the 2000 finals. The Declan Meehan goal has been doing the rounds this week. The Kerry player challenging Paul as he receives the pass from Pádraic Joyce? Yours truly. I was wasting my time. He knew where the next pass was going before he even gathered possession. I held my own in those finals but he also marked me in the league final in 2006, where we swapped roles, with me at centre forward and him at centre back. I was hooked at half-time. Enough said.
Beannacht Dé lena anam agus leaba i measc na Naomh go raibh aige.
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