Football championship permutations: 48 clubs scrapping for 26 spots
WEST CORK'S FINEST: Carbery Rangers' Darragh Hayes holding off Castlehaven's Ronan Walsh. Pic: Denis Boyle
Hurling had its hour of fun. Now it is football’s turn.
But before we size up this weekend’s Round 3 Cork football championship action and its myriad permutations, a necessary throwback to last Sunday to reaffirm just how tight the margins can be and how every single white flag is pivotal in the race for the knockout stages and the race away from relegation.
At the end of the Erin’s Own-Fr O’Neill’s Premier Senior hurling clash, Oran O’Regan threw over back-to-back frees to secure Erin’s Own a share of the spoils.
With Charleville beating Douglas in the other Group B game, Erin’s Own had no prayer of knockout progression. But what the two frees earned the Glounthaune men was a precious point and more besides.
For had they lost by the minimum, Erin’s Own, on the basis of a marginally inferior score difference to Kanturk, would have been condemned to a relegation play-off against Glen Rovers.
Let it be a cautionary tale to every team this weekend.
Of those 60 teams stepping inside the whitewash across five championship tiers, only four can rest easy in the knowledge they have already reserved a spot in the knockout phase.
That knockout phase has gone beyond eight more, meaning we have 48 clubs scrapping for 26 spots.
The winner of Clonakilty and Castlehaven wins the group. A draw sends Clon through. A draw could also see the Haven through, so long as Carbery Rangers fail to beat Valley Rovers by more than five points.
Clon could lose and still progress. For that to happen, they’d need already eliminated Valley Rovers to defeat the men from Rosscarbery, or a Valley Rovers-Cabery Rangers draw and Clon’s losing margin to be no more than seven points.
The same applies to Castlehaven, but their losing margin would need to be no more than five points.
A win for Carbery Rangers will be sufficient, provided there is a winner in the top of the table clash.
Nice and straightforward here. Nemo cannot be caught at the head of the group. Their focus is on St Finbarr’s and what they do against Douglas in Group C, as it is themselves and the Barrs vying for the top group seeding and direct passage to the semis.
Behind Nemo is a mid-Cork derby between Ballincollig and Éire Óg for second spot. A draw will suffice for Éire Óg.
Even though the Barrs are in pole position to pocket the overall top group seeding, Paul O’Keeffe’s charges are not mathematically guaranteed a top-two place going into the weekend. The likelihood of a shock elimination, though, is incredibly slim. For them to fall from first to third requires Douglas thumping them by 13 points and Mallow whacking St Michael’s by a margin of 30 points.
Douglas’ superior score difference (0) over Mallow (-17) means that should both win and end up on four points, along with the Barrs, Douglas would advance in second and Mallow exit.
In the event of Douglas losing and St Michael’s overcoming Mallow to record a first Premier Senior win, these three would be tied on two points. St Michaels' scoring difference is currently -8. For them to go from fourth to second, their winning margin and the size of Douglas’ defeat combined would need to wipe out the eight-point score difference separating them.
Current table-toppers Kanturk will progress with a draw against Duhallow rivals Knocknagree. If they lose, they must hope O’Donovan Rossa lose to Fermoy, draw, or win but fail to surpass the six-point score difference that separates the pair.
A three-point win for Knocknagree will do the job, irrespective of what happens in the other game.
For third-placed Skibbereen, a draw against Fermoy will push them into second if Knocknagree fall to Kanturk. A six-point win is the result they are chasing as that books their knockout ticket no matter what the outcome between Kanturk and Knocknagree.
For winless Fermoy (-10) to fly from fourth to second, they require Knocknagree (+2) to lose and they need to beat Fermoy (+1) by such a margin that gives them a better score difference than this pair.
A draw for Newmarket and Béal Átha’n Ghaorthaidh in their respective games will keep both in the top half of the table. If Newmarket lose to Clyda, what can save them is their losing margin being no more than two points greater than what Béal Átha’n Ghaorthaidh lose to already eliminated Kiskeam by.
Clyda, who were semi-finalists last year, will move into a knockout seat with victory over Newmarket. No other result will do for them.
Unbeaten Dohenys are already advanced. They're chasing a semi-final spot. Their opponents, Ilen Rovers, are out of the reckoning for a quarter-final berth.
The clash of Bishopstown and Newcestown is a straight gunfight for second. Bishopstown’s better score difference means they’ll advance should stalemate prevail.
A draw for Castletownbere, against Bandon, will take care of their progression. The Beara men, however, will go from first to third if they lose by five and Rockchapel down Nemo.
That aforementioned five-point Bandon victory is their key to a knockout place. For Rockchapel, a win over Nemo seals their progression.
For winless Nemo to leapfrog Bandon and Rockchapel into second, they must beat Rockchapel by four and keep their toes crossed that Bandon are beaten.
Last year’s beaten finalists Bantry have top spot wrapped up. Who joins them will be decided when the final whistle sounds on the meeting of Iveleary and Naomh Abán.
A draw will be more than enough for Cill na Martra against already exited Na Piarsaigh. That would turn Kilshannig-Aghada into a play-off for the other qualifying place. But where Aghada need to win, Kilshannig can get through on a draw.
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