The gap may narrow, but not enough for Waterford

REALISTICALLY, honestly, do Waterford have any chance against Kilkenny in tomorrow’s All-Ireland SHC semi-final?

Can a team which is substantially the same as that which was walloped by 23 points last September (3-30 to 1-13), by a Kilkenny side which itself is also substantially the same tomorrow, turn things round in the intervening 11 months to such an extent that they now have a realistic chance of winning?

Before we attempt an answer, let’s have a look at what happened in that fateful match nearly a year ago, and let’s also look at what’s happened in the meantime. Right through the 2008 championship, Kilkenny were in devastating form. They crushed Offaly (2-24 to 0-12), annihilated Wexford in the Leinster final (5-21 to 0-17), before dismissing a Cork team (1-23 to 0-17) that was coming off the back of two very good come-from-behind wins over Clare and Galway. Noteworthy were the huge scores being racked up by the Kilkenny forwards, the points totals especially.

Waterford, on the other hand, had been struggling. Beaten in the first round in Munster by Clare, they were then forced down the qualifier road, where they were most unimpressive in edging past the aforementioned Offaly and Wexford, beating the latter by just a point in the All-Ireland quarter-final.

Then came the All-Ireland semi-final, and a big win for Waterford over Tipperary, a surprise win. Only two points in at the finish but given Tipperary had swept all before them that year, this was a huge scalp for the Déise men. On the back of one big result, then, Waterford went into last year’s final with hopes high. Those hopes were dashed, and in most unceremonious fashion, game over after 22 minutes, at which stage Kilkenny led by 12 points.

That was then — let’s look at this year. Again, for the most part, Waterford have failed to really impress; in patches, yes, as in the first half of the drawn game with Limerick, most of the replay, as in the final quarter of the Munster final defeat by Tipperary, the final quarter also of the All-Ireland quarter-final win over Galway.

Mostly, however, Waterford are still battling for the kind of consistency we now take for granted from Kilkenny. And let’s look at the Cats. You hear talk that they are not as impressive this year, that they haven’t looked as invincible, and there is substance to that talk. Galway really tested them in the Leinster semi-final, and it took a magnificent unanswered 10-point burst midway into the second half to put the upstart Tribesmen away.

Against a resurgent Dublin in the Leinster final, again Kilkenny were tested, and again there was no rout, no repetition of what had happened in 2008, only two goals in it. Here’s the rub, though — Kilkenny are still winning, and with relative ease, even if they are facing sterner tests. And they were doing so without Noel Hickey, Brian Hogan and — to a large extent — Cha Fitzpatrick. All three are back, ready for action.

Examining all the above then, the conclusion? Waterford really weren’t as good as they may have thought themselves before last year’s final, but were certainly not as bad as that result suggested. They may have made a bit of progress this season, and Kilkenny may have slipped slightly, which will bring the two sides closer. But, not close enough for that result to be reversed.

Kilkenny to win, and again with reasonable ease.