No escaping luck factor at Aintree

BETWEEN now and Saturday the question which is going to be on just about everyone’s lips is “what’s going to win the National?’

The first thing which has to be said is that this is a 40-runner cavalry charge in which luck is virtually certain to rear its ugly head.

Most serious punters, and they are going to be in a massive minority when it comes to this particular race, will give the National a wide berth.

Anyone who has ever managed to make a profit at the game will surely have managed it on the basis of solid homework, thus ensuring luck plays as little a part as possible.

No matter how much homework you do on the National, however, there is simply no escaping the luck factor.

Anyway, there is one major rule which, I think, has to be followed if one is to have a chance of finding the winner.

And that is your selection has to carry under 11-0. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t be a great believer in statistics or so-called trends, when it comes to racing, but the National is different.

Had a glance the other day at the race back to 1987. As a well-known politician might say, the facts of the matter are that only one horse in 21 runnings of the race since ‘87 has carried more than 11-0 to victory.

That was Hedgehunter (11-1) in 2005 and he was a real course specialist. Rhyme ‘N Reason scored with 11-0 in 1988, but the other 19, the contest was void in 1993, have gone to horses who were burdened with less than 11-0. In lots of cases the weight carried was actually way under the magical mark.

So, immediately we rule out the favourite My Will (11-4), and the likes of other stongly fancied candidates in last year’s winner Comply Or Die, Black Apalachi, Snowy Morning, State Of Play and Big Fella Thanks.

Comply Or Die has 11-6 and no horse has retained the National since Red Rum. Decent and all as Comply Or Die is, he’s no Red Rum.

If I had one wish it would be that Tony McCoy finally wins the race. Publicity-wise that would send this National spinning off the Richter scale.

I won’t pretend for a second to being in any way confident of solving the annnual puzzle, but five against the field are Butler’s Cabin, L’Ami, Southern Vic, Rambling Minster and Kilbeggan Blade.

They are all going to hump less than 11-0, have a bit of age on their side, are in good form and are tough and rugged.

So what price that five against the other 35? Anyone?

OF far more interest on Saturday at Liverpool is the Grade 1 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle, which sees Celestial Halo stepping up to two and a half miles for the first time.

We almost landed a minor touch each-way at 10-1 with the five-year-old in the Champion Hurdle, only for Punjabi to come and “chin’ him by a neck.

A year ago, Celestial Halo found two miles all too short on this track when simply run-over by Binocular, but the extra half mile now threatens to be a major help.

The worry you would have, however, is that he had a very hard race at Cheltenham. He was on the pace from the start and was in front three out. Celestial Halo never flinched up the hill and this will surely revolve round whether that grueller has left a mark.

Al Eile, who comes into his own at this time of the year and on this track, has to be regarded as Celestial Halo’s most interesting opponent.

John Queally has done a remarkable job to nurse him back to full fitness and Al Eile will arrive off a smooth success on the all-weather at Dundalk.

The nine-year-old will now be attempting to do a Morley Street and win this for a fourth time.

REMEMBER here last week, I indulged in a bit of moaning about the onset of the flat season and the difficulty of whipping up enthusiasm for it, on the back of a terrific National Hunt campaign.

Well, a letter quickly landed on my desk from that doyen of flat trainers, Jim Bolger, and it is well worth recording.

This is what he wrote: “We all miss Lester, Christy Ring and the Rackards, but life goes on, as it must.

“A young man (thanks Jim) such as yourself should be able to make the adjustment over time. It might help if you were to hope that a replacement for Lester might come along and, perhaps, I can hope that Joe Canning is the new Christy Ring.

“I won’t be holding my breath that three smart hurling brothers will come any time soon to equal the Rackards but, as I said, life goes on. I wish you a joyful flat season.”

Now, wouldn’t that put you in good humour? Point made and with style. You know, he rekindled my enthusiasm for the flat with one sweep of his pen. Bring it on.