Drama pumped up in drawn-out Champions League round of 16

According to the Catechism of Football Cliché there are no easy draws at the knockout stage of the Champions League. Like all clichés there is an element of truth to it, but there is no denying that Manchester City have landed the easiest of three Anglo-German ties, nor that Roma will be relieved to be drawn against Porto, and Real Madrid against Ajax.

Three of the four pairings involving Premier League clubs could be tipped as tie of the round. Manchester United’s clash with Paris Saint-Germain is a first, though not for Jose Mourinho, who will have mixed feelings about another meeting with the French champions. Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with a 10-man PSG in March 2015 in retrospect looks like a milestone marking the spiral of decline in Mourinho’s Champions League fortunes.

Tottenham and Liverpool will both fancy their chances against German opposition, maybe Liverpool more so as Bayern Munich have been well off the pace in the Bundesliga, while Dortmund have been playing spectacular football.

However, ties against German opposition are always hard to judge at this stage of the season because of the winter break: Unlike in England, Bundesliga clubs have time to recharge their batteries and do some tactical training.

In fact, this stage of the Champions League is all about time. Up until the 2009-10 season, the first “round of 16” knockout stage was a straightforward affair. All the first leg matches were played on consecutive days in February, with the return games a fortnight later. Since then the matches have been staggered to take place over a period of four weeks.

As ever the motive was cash — a lot of cash. Lucrative matches spread out, more primetime television exposure, more advertising. Revenue was flat at €820m for the three seasons before the change: It then jumped to €1,100m and subsequently rose to reach €2,100m in 2016/17.

Puffing up the first knockout round played a significant part in that. The impact in football terms is harder to judge.

That first season saw some dramatic high-scoring second-leg matches: United beat Milan 4-0, Barcelona put four past Stuttgart, Arsenal won 5-0 against Porto. Schalke and Shakhtar Donetsk achieved memorable turnrounds the next season. And there have been a few extraordinary results since then: Remember the way PSG collapsed against Barcelona late on at Camp Nou, after winning the first leg 4-0, or Monaco’s shock 3-1 win against Man City.

Spreading out the games seems to have increased the potential for drama: It has probably given players and managers more time to focus, or perhaps more time to absorb the lessons of the first leg. Not in every tie though, nor every season. And the scope for outsiders to spring a surprise seems to have been reduced, though Monaco and Leicester upset the odds at this stage two seasons ago.

The title ‘race’ in some countries has become more like a procession, notably Italy and France, where Juventus and PSG are dominating.

But it is much tighter at the top of La Liga, where both Sevilla and Atletico are just one win away from drawing level with Barcelona. Barca have a relatively easy Champions League draw — except Lyon are embodiment of the no easy games cliché, as they showed against Man City.

Liverpool’s game in Munich is in almost three months’ time. Likewise the games involving several other tournament favourites such as Barcelona, Man City, and Juventus. A lot can happen by then, both on and off the pitch. Perhaps this is the moment to mention that the UK is set to leave the EU a week later…

Look more closely at the schedule and some sides have been luckier than others. Spurs travel to Dortmund immediately after their league match at home to Arsenal. Likewise Roma play Lazio on the eve of their second leg against Porto (Porto are at home to Benfica that same weekend which might level the odds a bit).

Real Madrid, despite their problems, will be optimistic about beating Ajax — but that match does follow a massive league game against Barcelona at the Bernabeu.

Bearing in mind the time factors, the tournament favourites currently must be Man City. The bookies clearly think so. The one difficult opponent they might have faced was Atletico Madrid, never Pep Guardiola’s favourite

opposition. And their task against Schalke looks easier because they warm up against Watford before the second leg.

By contrast with the potential drama of these fixtures, the Europa League looks a much more tame affair. Tie of the round there isn’t; Lazio-Sevilla may be the closest thing. And once again Spanish clubs seem likely to dominate the latter stages.

Among them is Valencia, Celtic’s next opponents, and La Liga’s draw specialists – 10 in 16 games. However Valencia also took four points from United in their Champions League group.

The biggest issue for Arsenal against BATE is probably the travel. Minsk in February can be quite bracing. Chelsea visit Malmo just after their big game against Man City at the Etihad.

In contrast to the Champions League, the ties take place over consecutive weeks in February, rather than over a month.

The cynical view might be that this is to help fans remember who they’re playing.