In rugby as in politics, key decisions still made at No 10
It’s easy if lazy to imagine a French-dominated Champions Cup in years to come, but the key to Irish success lies not in how deep their pockets are, but who is controlling things from number 10.
Ulster will only get stronger with Paddy Jackson developing all the time - he’ll be the real deal in less than 24 months. Leinster will have Johnny Sexton back, and he will boss games. Munster should have Tyler Bleyendaal to add much-needed competition for Ian Keatley after the much-unwanted loss of JJ Hanrahan. With so much going through the out-half, the provinces’ fortunes will be determined by how good the guy in the number 10 shirt is.
Sounds simple, doesn’t it? But Leinster’s defeat to Toulon in Marseille last weekend helps strengthen the argument. If you’re a wing or a centre, you don’t tend to have much of an influence on the tough games in the latter stages of European competition. Tactically, those games are chess matches for 80 minutes; the nines and the 10s are the key performers and the main decision-makers.
Part of Leinster’s problem was that not only had they two number 10s on the pitch in Jimmy Gopperth and Ian Madigan, but the latter was doing the former’s job for him. Essentially, they had two players in one position. Gopperth spent most of his time passing the ball to Madigan, meaning most of the tactical kicking was done a channel wider, which wasn’t ideal.
With the tactical kicking from both sides a major disappointment, it left Leinster in a spot of bother. With a lightweight 12 on the pitch, they couldn’t go down the physical route, nor did they want to play a lot in the wide channels in the knowledge of how deadly Toulon are off turnovers. I don’t go along with the idea that they lacked ambition, but their basic skill levels weren’t sufficient to qualify for a European final.
Had either side kicked well tactically, this game would have never gone to extra-time. I talked up Frederic Michalak last week, but he was a major disappointment; Toulon were directionless under him. Rumours came out afterwards that he was struggling with a quad injury, and he had all the signs of it. He didn’t look anywhere near 100% and old faults came back to haunt him.
From a Racing Metro point of view, watching both semi-finals underlined how big an opportunity we missed in the quarter-finals, because none of the teams looked particularly impressive in the last four. There were an incredible amount of basic errors from Leinster and Toulon, and there’s only so much of that you can put down to nerves.
Bryan Habana’s comments afterwards, suggesting Toulon thought Leinster would be a walkover, were staggering. To think it is one thing, to say it and not correct yourself is quite another, but it shows the mindset Toulon had. They almost paid the ultimate price for not respecting Leinster, but Matt O’Connor’s side couldn’t capitalise on the opportunity.
Much has been made this week of how having so many guys in the Ireland set-up has adversely affected Leinster’s performances. There’s no doubt that having 20 players in the national squad is a phenomenal number of fellas to be missing, and no squad can put up with that. Nonetheless, I’m not sure I buy it as an excuse for their European exit.
Back in the days when the Munster half-backs and the majority of our pack were away on international duty, the players would take it upon themselves to make up for lost time. We were a tight-knit squad so our decision-makers would meet the day before we were due to go into camp to get organised ourselves. It wasn’t so much about time spent together on the training pitch; it’s difficult to find that anyway with the need for so much rest and recovery. It was more of a player-driven thing to get everybody on the same page before a big game.
If Leinster are being honest with themselves, the primary reason they haven’t made the Champions Cup final is because they couldn’t score a try in 160 minutes of knockout rugby. They only managed one in extra-time when they had to chase the game. We had that issue in Munster for years - a good pack but kicking six penalties isn’t enough, you need a try or two as well to get you over the line, and Leinster never looked like scoring in normal time.
It was presumed here that both French teams would get through, and now they have, it’s Toulon who will be favourites to win their third title on the bounce. Initially people will be talking up Clermont’s chances because of how they played against Northampton and - to a lesser extent - against Saracens, but the closer it gets to the final, the more Toulon’s proven ability and Clermont’s history of bottling finals will come into play.
Finally, I mentioned last week that the latter stages of European competition were a major shop window ahead of the World Cup and it has certainly proven so for Matt Giteau. Australia’s announcement this week they will relax the restrictions on foreign players lining out for the national side - anyone with over 60 caps who spent seven years on an ARU contract will now be available for selection, regardless of where they currently play - will give a major boost to their chances and could turn them into contenders.
It’s effectively a loyalty card for proven internationals, and is a shrewd move by Michael Cheika. George Smith at Lyon - who is 34 but is still a serious player, if I was picking the Wallaby side he’d be in it - and Toulon’s Drew Mitchell will all come into consideration, but in time I can see this being named the Giteau Rule as it was clearly brought in with him in mind.
As England look on at Nick Abendanon and Steffon Armitage lining out against each other for French sides in the Champions Cup final, it will be fascinating to see if they will be tempted to follow suit.
