Autumn Cubs, Summer Lions?
Lose Saturday’s game to Australia and Wales will be consigned to tier three of the World Cup draw next Monday having entered the November series of games with aspirations of a place in the top tier along with New Zealand, South Africa and Australia.
With Samoa and Argentina only separated by one hundredth of a ranking point at present, both nations will be praying for an Australian win as that will secure their places in the second tier at the expense of the Welsh. Only six months ago, Wales looked realistic challengers for the Webb Ellis trophy itself after making the semi-final in New Zealand and following up that magnificent showing by capturing a Grand Slam. It has all gone horribly wrong since, however, with six straight test defeats and some really poor showings from their regional sides in the Heineken Cup. If Ireland were under pressure going into last Saturday’s game against Argentina — and you wouldn’t have thought so given the way they performed — then the pressure on Warren Garland’s men in the Millennium Stadium on Saturday will be even more intense.
Australia have had a very difficult time of it lately but having scraped past the Italians in Rome last weekend after their morale boosting win over England the previous week, they’ll be fired up to complete their anus horribilus on a high. With the Lions tour now coming clearly into focus for their players and management, they will be every bit as keyed up for a win as their desperate Welsh counterparts. With a potentially horrendous World Cup pool the likely outcome for failure on this occasion, everything this talented young Welsh squad has achieved over the last year will be thrown out the window. You can just imagine what the reaction will be over there if they are beaten again.
Likewise, Ireland need to keep our feet firmly on the ground despite that magnificent performance on Saturday. We have also been down this road before and Ireland’s appalling inconsistency despite our continued excellence in the Heineken Cup has undermined some of the more notable achievements at national level in recent times.
Saturday was the reward for the excellent work achieved on the training ground over the last four weeks and the management team as a collective deserve great credit for the clarity and precision brought by every member of the squad into that game against Argentina. It was clear from the utterances of the players, both before and after the game, that everyone had an understanding of their individual and collective roles.
The challenge now is to replicate that clarity against Wales in the opening Six Nations encounter in Cardiff in February given that on the last two occasions the sides met — the quarter-final of the World Cup in Wellington followed immediately by the Six Nations opener at the Aviva — Gatland and his group of coaches won the tactical battle hands down.
The biggest plus to emerge from the last few weeks is the knowledge that there is plenty of hungry young players out there keen to rise to the challenge once the likes of Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell eventually hang up their boots.
Nobody is suggesting for one minute that their outstanding careers are over but once injury becomes a recurring factor when you are in your thirties, it becomes very difficult to shake off the accumulated mileage on the clock.
I recall the doom and gloom that surrounded Irish rugby when a gifted generation either retired en masse or were incapacitated by injury after a very productive period for the game in this country when the late Moss Keane, Fergus Slattery, Willie Duggan, John O’Driscoll and Ollie Campbell all departed the scene in the mid eighties. Within six months a new generation were entrusted with the responsibility and the impact was immediate with Brendan Mullin, Nigel Carr, Philip Matthews, Willie Anderson, Brian Spillane and Michael Bradley all making their mark. But for a draw against France in Dublin, a first Grand Slam since 1948 would have been delivered in 1985.
The fact that Paddy Jackson, Luke Marshall, Dave Kilcoyne, Richardt Strauss, Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy have all looked comfortable operating at the next level offers great hope for the future. When you consider the depth of quality and experience that will hopefully come back into contention for that key opening encounter against Wales in a few months time, it is difficult not to get excited.
Apart from the rejuvenated French, who have had an excellent series with highly impressive wins over Australia, Argentina and a quality Samoan outfit on successive weekends, Ireland have nothing to fear in the Six Nations. Even at that, Philippe Saint-Andre’s men have to travel to Dublin so you would fancy Ireland’s chances if they can repeat the multi-phase rugby they produced on Saturday.
England are struggling for a morale-boosting win and we knew Scotland were brutal coming into the November series despite encouraging results over the summer. Once again they imploded with that horrific defeat to Tonga — the last straw for a beleaguered Andy Robinson. Then again, those of us who saw the Tongan’s put it up to New Zealand in last year’s World Cup before going on to sensationally beat France in their pool game, should not have been that surprised.
Samoa’s well deserved win over Wales and the fact that they had the French on the rack for long periods at the Stade de France shows just what those two sides are capable of with proper funding, unobstructed player availability and decent preparation.
It is now crucial that the IRB make sure their build up to the next World Cup is seamless and well structured as the more teams capable of beating each other, the better and less predictable the tournament will be. The immediate challenge for the governing body is to sort out the mess that made Fiji the poor relations of the South Sea islanders on this trip for, as we saw in France in 2007, they have the potential to be the best of the three.
Generally speaking, Warren Gatland must be disappointed with the overall quality of performance from several Lions contenders. Players who looked in pole position only a few months ago — Richie Gray, Sam Warburton, Jamie Roberts, Toby Faletau, Gethin Jenkins, Rhys Priestland, Ben Youngs, Chris Robshaw, Manu Tuilagi and Ross Ford — all have a serious job to do to make the plane. The only consolation for Gatland is that several contenders missed the entire November series due to injury.
He will now start a reappraisal of his options after a disastrous autumn with the Six Nations and Heineken Cup offering a platform for some previously unheralded contenders such as Craig Gilroy, Simon Zebo, Donnacha Ryan, Richardt Strauss, Joe Launchbury, Tom Wood, Justin Tipuric, Alex Corbisiero and Mike Brown to build on the positive impression made this month.
It appears that from a position of relative strength, Gatland has his hands full on all fronts at the moment. What a difference a few weeks of rugby makes.
