Roll up, roll up for football’s greatest circus
So here’s all that you really need to know. The tournament kicks off today, June 11, when South Africa and Mexico set the ball rolling in Johannesburg. And the tournament finishes on Sunday, July 11 when Brazil face Spain in the final, the perfect footballing and symbolic conclusion as the old world meets the new world for the first ever World Cup final on the continent of Africa. See you all in Rio in four years’ time!
Or so the bookies, most of the pundits and the partisans of Sao Paulo and Madrid would have us believe. And they might well be right. Certainly, any dispassionate analysis of the runners and riders in South Africa suggests that the five-time World Cup winners and the reigning European champions are the ones to beat.
But, as we know, the course of any World Cup rarely runs smooth, or follows the dictates of form, logic or reason. Even as the last tournament was kicking off, for example, who would have thought that an ageing French side would go all the way to the final in Berlin, only to be derailed at the 11th hour by an act of madness on the part of their greatest player that was, effectively, a bigger blow to them than it was to Marco Materazzi?
Part of the beauty of the greatest football show on earth lies in its unfailing capacity to surprise, whether it’s in one-off games like Cameroon shocking Argentina in 1990 or over the prolonged course of a sensational giant-killing run, such as South Korea managed on home soil in 2002.
Yet, one way or another, the cream invariably rises to the top. There used to be popular theory that the European Championship was a more concentrated test of superior quality than its unwieldy bigger brother, but that one got firmly knocked on the head when Greece managed to grind their way to a triumph no-one could have predicted in 2004.
Yet, for all the improbable twists and turns as the competition unfolds, ultimately the World Cup tends to remain the property of a privileged elite. Uruguay’s two wins in the first 20 years apart, the trophy has never left the hands of a clutch of the sport’s recognised superpowers – Brazil, Italy, Germany and Argentina – with England and France, neither international wallflowers, chipping in with one apiece.
Probably the biggest names yet to be engraved on the golden gong are those of Holland and Spain. Although Arjen Robben’s fitness has to be counted a major concern, the Dutch, rampant in qualifying, go into this tournament with a serious chance of figuring in the shake-up. But if Spain can take up where they left off in Vienna two years ago, they are best poised to take the final step and overcome their big tournament hoodoo on the double.
With Iniesta and Xavi in the middle and Villa and Torres up front, even the samba superstars have to bow to Iberia’s current mastery of the lethally beautiful – although, as the great Brazilian side of 1982 found out to their cost, it can take more than untouchable creative panache to negotiate the myriad challenges.
Then there are those teams who simply defy any attempt at rational analysis – step forward Argentina. Or, rather, waddle forward Maradona. The biggest name in football management commands some of the biggest names in world football but the result, which should be winning, is anyone’s guess.
Maradona’s repeatedly mixed messages about Lionel Messi could undermine the world’s greatest player’s confidence to virtually the same effect, thereby reinforcing the popular view back home that Messi does for club what he does not do for country.
If it all goes right, the heir apparent can emulate the great man and take the 2010 World Cup by the scruff of the neck, just as Maradona did in 1986. And if it all goes wrong, we’ll be watching from behind the sofa.
Where the Hand of God goes, can England be far behind? Our dear neighbours once again go into a tournament carrying the burden of lofty expectation balanced by that ingrained pessimism which insists that, somehow, they’ll find a way to mess it all up again.
Their biggest plus this time is that they arrive at a World Cup with a genuinely world-class manager at the helm. Their biggest strength on the pitch is Wayne Rooney but their biggest weakness is the extent to which they must rely on him to inspire a side whose potential is traditionally undermined by a crushing lack of self-belief.
Rio Ferdinand’s injury is a reminder too that the fate of any team can be dictated to some extent by circumstances beyond their control, with Germany’s Michael Ballack, Ghana’s Michael Essien and Portugal’s Nani among the household names already ruled out. Meanwhile, the respective coaches of Italy, the Ivory Coast and Switzerland are worrying about the availability of key men Pirlo, Drogba and Frei.
But then the World Cup won’t be just about the established names. Expect rising stars and unsung heroes to insinuate themselves into your consciousness over the next four weeks.
They include the likes of Germany’s scoring sensation Thomas Mueller, the Mexican duo of Carlos Vela and Giovani Dos Santos, Denmark’s much-coveted young defender Simon Kjaer, Cameroon’s “new Eto’o” Vincent Aboubaka and Slovenian teenage midfielder Rene Krhin.
But most of all, as the big day finally dawns, expect the unexpected, whether it comes in the form of the sublime, the ridiculous, the shocking, the scandalous, the tearful or the traumatic. And that’ll just be a Maradona press conference.
