Daniel Storey: Not every underdog story should warm our footballing souls
Hungary fans listen to the national anthem at the Ferenc Puskas Stadium in Budapest. On Saturday, vast swathes of their support wore black t-shirts. (Alex Pantling, Pool via AP)
After 90 minutes, all was serene. England had beaten the second seed in Group D and with it virtually guaranteed passage to the knockout stages with two games still to play. One game later, the country has been plunged into its customary angst. It is a wearing, draining cycle of hope and disappointment.
England approached their game against Scotland all wrong - that became clear after the first 20 minutes. They appeared surprised that Steve Clarke’s team were intent on hassling them in midfield and sitting deep in defence. The best approach to thwart that strategy is to pass the ball quickly through midfield and to use the full-backs to pull defenders out wide; England did neither of those often enough.
Gareth Southgate has come in for flak. England probably didn’t need two defensively-minded midfielders and left a yawning gap between defence and attack. The omission of Jack Grealish was understandable given the concerns over his fitness but Jadon Sancho’s lack of minutes so far is questionable.
But England have a chance to make amends. You can make a clear case for finishing second in Group D as the preferable result, but Southgate knows that rebuilding goodwill is a greater priority even if it means a last-16 tie against Germany or France. Yet after this weekend, England would not be favourites to beat either.
The enlargement of the European Championship from 16 to 24 teams was a misstep that prioritised revenue over format. Not only does it create a messy scenario in which teams can finish second in their group and avoid a group winner in the last-16, it also favours those playing late in matchday three who enjoy the luxury of knowing exactly what they need to do to qualify.
But the flipside of the new format is that it does create extra jeopardy on the final round of matches. In groups B to F, all finishing between Monday and Wednesday, North Macedonia are the only team who have been eliminated from the competition. Denmark, Poland, Scotland, and Hungary, all currently bottom of their groups, could each still finish second.
It also creates the possibility of managing your destiny in a bid to prolong your stay in the tournament. In Groups D and F, there may well be clear benefits to finishing second rather than first that could persuade managers to deliberately settle for a draw.
With 30 minutes played of their second group game, Germany were facing the real possibility of being eliminated from two consecutive major tournaments after the group stages for the first time in their history, eroding the legacy of Joachim Low’s reign before he leaves to allow Hansi Flick to succeed him.
But we know too well not to write Germany off. Low had come in for criticism for his commitment to a back three with wing-backs but both Robin Gosens and Joshua Kimmich were instrumental in Germany’s emphatic response, scoring four times in 25 minutes either side of half-time. Beat Hungary, and the worst Germany will do is finish second in Group F.
For Portugal, their destiny now hangs by a thread. Fernando Santos knows only too well that finishing third in the group with three points and a level goal difference is no barrier to winning a tournament (we all remember Euro 2016) but they are the major nation most at risk of elimination if they lose to France on Wednesday.
Spain entered this tournament with Luis Enrique declaring himself pleased that his side were not being discussed as serious contenders. Spain had only lost one of their previous 24 matches, a run stretching back to November 2018, and had beaten Germany 6-0 in the Nations League in November 2020.
But we have witnessed exactly why Spain were considered only to be dark horses. Enrique’s side dominated possession and territory against Sweden but could not find the winner. Against Poland, they enjoyed 77 percent of the ball but were pegged back by Robert Lewandowski’s header and again missed clear chances to move to the top of Group E.
Alvaro Morata is the personification of Spain’s issues. He did score their first goal of the tournament on Sunday but Morata’s profligacy is killing Spain’s buzz, and yet Enrique remains loyal to his toiling striker. If Enrique continues with the same plan and they fail to beat Slovakia, he may well be unemployed by this time next week.
Witness Hungary’s pulsating draw with France in front of a full house at the Puskas Arena without context and you might consider it to be the defining image of football’s return to glorious normality. Hungary are the only country with a full stadium at this tournament and there are reports that they may yet be awarded the semi-final and final.
But scratch below the surface and a grim picture emerges. Hungary have only permitted a full quota of supporters because prime minister Viktor Orban is a lover of football and is happy to ignore sensible Covid-19 restrictions in order to assist the national team’s progress.
More worrying still is the fascist element of the nation’s support. Hungary are under Uefa investigation for displaying anti-LGBT banners during their opening match against Portugal.
On Saturday, vast swathes of their support wore black t-shirts. That group has a history of chanting against black, Jewish, and traveller communities and marched before the game to protest against countries taking the knee. The lesson is obvious: Not every underdog story should warm our footballing souls.
