Ronan O'Gara: Forget the World Cup. It’s all-in for the spring spectacular
MEN IN BLACK: Left to right, Italy head coach Kieran Crowley, Scotland equivalent Gregor Townsend, Ireland's Andy Farrell, Fabien Galthié of France, new England head coach Steve Borthwick and returning Wales boss Warren Gatland.
THERE can’t be many tournaments in world sport where perceptions and momentum change with the same weekly frequency as the Six Nations. In assessing the respective rounds, one can be made to look stupid on Monday morning after one game. The shifting sands from early February to mid-March could mould an entirely new sub-continent.
SIX NATIONS RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP 2023
Your home for the latest news, views and analysis of this year's Six Nations Championship from our award winning sports team.
SIX NATIONS RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP 2023
Your home for the latest news, views and analysis of this year's Six Nations Championship from our award winning sports team.
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Ireland should win in Cardiff on Saturday. They are the number-one ranked side in the world and they should be meeting their status in that context. Nobody knows whether the latest iteration of Gatland-ball will take off in a raucous theatre with 80,000 screaming disciples under a closed roof - or whether Ireland will snuff out it all out before he even gets the chance to flick open the lighter.
In broader terms, Ireland and France should be filling the top two positions by round five, with England okay with a third-placed berthing. Given the Andy Farrell standard, they will expect to beat France at home, and take a two-from-two to Rome for round three.
While it is always tempting to link the two tournaments in a World Cup year, viewed from September, the Six Nations is going to seem a distant and largely irrelevant memory. Maybe in Ireland’s case, slightly different judgements apply.
As a country that has perennially got its RWC cycles wrong, a poor Six Nations will rankle and seep deeper into the consciousness than it would the other five nations. Again, this might be dismissed as outside noise, and I would be surprised if the theme in the Irish camp in Portugal has not been: Why not attack a Six Nations and a World Cup in the same year?
One can create every conceivable narrative out of this if they wish. There are six months between the two renewals, and that is essentially a different season. So, it’s all-in for Farrell and co in the spring, and then a re-set afterwards. There will be no shortage of reminders that Ireland have lost form at vital stages of the World Cup cycle, and it’s the exception that proves the point of how you get confidence – by knowing you are able to do something. Ireland knows that when it comes to the RWC, they haven’t that model cracked, unlike European Cups or Grand Slams. The final piece of the jigsaw is obviously trying to get the prep for a WC sorted, and that remains unproven, but the portents are promising this time.
What every team wants coming out of March is a) positivity, b) something to build on for the autumn. Whatever way they spin it, two countries are going to be in a bad place after the Six Nations. Wales can’t really get any worse, they lost at home to Georgia in November so everything for them is relative. The perception around them is very different these days, which suggests there will be some sort of a Gatland bounce.
He will get more time than England’s Steve Borthwick in the public arena, but behind the closed double doors of the national unions, the WRU will be at least as nervous about the road travelled as the RFU, who will stick by their man now.
A whiff of momentum for England could pitch up at Aviva Stadium on March 18th at 5pm. But as the final fixture and the lasting memory, it will shape England’s spring. They could rescue a mediocre Six Nations if they do a number on Ireland. Alternatively, if England win four games on the trot – which they may do - but get trounced in Dublin, it’s going to leave a horrible taste in terms of starting to build towards a World Cup.
Scotland are going to Twickenham to face England in round one this Saturday on an absolute freebie. All the pressure is on England, and that can liberate Scotland. If you want Finn Russell in any headspace, it’s in a liberated one. He ripped us apart with Racing 92 last weekend, and it’s a dangerous mindset for him to be going in with it. What Scotland don’t need is a wet and windy Twickenham because that will nullify a lot of Russell’s game. When we see how teams set up to play on the opening weekend, it will open a window into their mindset and ambition.
Scotland have an advantage if they play loose and fast with Russell, but that advantage is compromised if they go too structured. Such is their conundrum. Russell and Townsend haven’t connected heretofore, the latter a flamboyant ten who has become a disciple of Joe Schmidt's very strucrtued approach. His current ten is loose as a goose who gets gains by chancing his arm. It’s interesting that Ben Healy isn’t involved yet in the 23, especially as 3-0, 6-0 and 9-0 is more appreciated at test level than it is at club. Healy can bang a drop goal, can bang a spiral off either foot, or a 50:22 for that matter. You would think his point of difference should be more valued the thinner the air is in the game.
Scotland are huffing and puffing and threatening to blow the house down every year but instead the house invariably falls down around them. Imagine if Wales turn over Ireland, the confidence they will have going to Murrayfield in Week Two. Wales have England in Rd 3, Scotland have France. That’s why the opening series of games can be disproportionately important.
That England have gone without Manu Tuilagi for the Calcutta Cup, with the Smith-Farrell axis in midfield, a young nine in Van Poortvleit and a debutant wing in Ollie Hassell-Collins is a sign that Borthwick is clearing house early.
The ten conversation begins and ends with the certainty that the new coach needs both Marcus Smith and Owen Farrell depending on what sort of game he wants to play at the World Cup. Two of the pool games will be less strenuous, but it depends what the new coach is planning with his 23 when it comes to the knockout phase. In the bigger Six Nations games, France at home, Ireland away, it could be that Farrell goes to ten and Tuilagi returns.
France can go to Dublin in round two, lose by three points and yet have a great tournament. Due to the brutality of the Top 14, and the statistical certainty of players getting injured between Rounds 14,15 and 16, 17, it is no galloping shock that Fabien Galthie will be getting a good look at his depth chart as early as round one. This weekend is also Journee 16 in France’s domestic marathon and consequently the national side are down numerous players.
That they are missing Antoine Dupont’s back-up, Maxime Lucu, may not seem an issue to some on the outside, but it means a new nine in the 23. There will be a change at 12 with Jonathan Danty out and on the wing with Gabin Villiers unavailable. Up front, they have a strong back row, but all told, France are without six of their normal 23 for Sunday’s opener against Italy. It should be a gimme but there’s always that scintilla of doubt in French minds going to Rome. Italy’s URC sides are doing well and they have a matchwinner in Capuozzo. France have a contrary gene, and if their tails are down, the Italians could give them bother.
Of them all, Gatland arguably has the least to prove. Borthwick is a young, exceptionally good coach trying to crack the test arena. He may not be as experienced or cunning as the others yet but his first selection doesn’t suggest any sheepishness. The Six Nations is important as the only greenhorn head coach, but nobody gets a pass this spring. France and Ireland will want to finish first and second, England might be ok with third if they see growth; Wales need to vindicate the Gatland decision, and Scotland could as easily take off or implode. If it’s the latter, it could be a long six months to the World Cup.
