Éamonn Fitzmaurice: Jack's refined Kerry will triumph because they have to
ON A MISSION: David Clifford of Kerry in action against Pádraig O'Hora of Mayo during the Allianz Football League Division 1 Final match between Kerry and Mayo at Croke Park in Dublin. Pic: Ray McManus, Sportsfile
“We feel the season is only starting now for us because if you think about it, particularly in Kerry, the League and the Munster championship is kind of shadowboxing.”
Since Kerry’s loss to Tyrone in last year's All Ireland semi-final, this is the weekend the players will have circled in their calendar since the fixtures were made. This is a chance to atone for that performance and get back into an All-Ireland semi final. While they have done everything asked of them so far as they moved through the McGrath Cup, National League and Munster championship - annexing all three - in many ways their season starts Sunday.
They will have been impatient to get to this point, while also appreciating the importance of each of the steps as building blocks towards an ultimate assault on the All-Ireland. Their attitude will be simple, win and they are well set for an All Ireland semi final, most likely against Dublin. Lose, and they are still not good enough and they are as well off out of it. The thing is they know they are good enough, just that they have yet to prove it. All-Irelands are earned from now on and they are the only currency in Kerry. In terms of developing a squad to win Sam all of the boxes have been ticked this year and over the last couple of years.
It is now time to go and do it.
I saw Jack O’Connor mentioning this week that he feels Mayo could be in a similar situation to where we were in 2009 prior to the ‘startled earwigs’ quarter-final against Dublin. While there are some similarities, there are crucial differences. Chief among them is that Kerry team in 2009 had the medals, experience and knew how to get the job done. In contrast, Mayo are still on the hunt for that elusive first medal. However there is no doubt that they play to the level of their opposition and the sight of Kerry could be the spark that ignites their season, similar to us in 2009.
The stiffer the challenge and the more significant the result, the better they seem to get, with last year's final being a notable exception. Conversely, when they play a team they perceive as inferior they tend to drop to their level. For a more recent parallel, I would look at their 2017 campaign which was peak Mayo when they lost in Connacht to Galway and staggered through a qualifier campaign requiring extra time to dispose of Derry and Cork, and a replay to eventually see off Roscommon in a quarter final. We played them in two All-Ireland semi-finals with them winning the replay, and the level of change in their performance levels was incredible.
They seriously rose their game for us and again for Dublin in the final. Many of their best players were in a great vein of form. They were either experiencing an Indian Summer or hitting their peak. Lee Keegan, the O’Connors, Aidan O’Shea, Colm Boyle, Keith Higgins, Tom Parsons, David Clarke, Chris Barrett, Kevin McLoughlin were all operating at the top of their games. Andy Moran was the player of the year. How many of the current crop can you say that about?
For Mayo to win this quarter-final, they will need goals and to succeed here they have to overcome two factors that have been significant patterns throughout this season. Firstly, Mayo themselves are struggling for goals. Up to now they have played 11 league and championship matches. They have scored a total of nine goals in that time, with four coming in their two encounters with Kildare, who have hardly been market leaders in defending.
They have drawn a blank in six of the 11 games. On top of this, Kerry’s goal concession rate has been as meagre as it has ever been in living memory. They have conceded only two goals all season, with one of them being a soft penalty awarded in Monaghan. During that aforementioned 2017 campaign Mayo scored 15 goals in 10 games when Dean Rock’s late free decided the All-Ireland. Based on the evidence so far this season they will struggle to get goals tomorrow and if so they won’t score enough to win.
DROP CAP
James Horan has a set way that he likes to play. High-octane, high-energy, hard work and with a sprinkle of heroism thrown in. At their best they can overrun and overpower teams. The Mayo crowd get behind them and they can be very hard to play against. However when they are short of energy they can be average. For this reason is there a chance Horan could try something different this weekend? History tells us otherwise. Other than personnel switches, what can he do?
Two obvious things are to tweak his defensive system and that consider that age-old chestnut of Aidan O’Shea’s positioning. In the league final, and while accepting they were down key personnel, they were badly exposed at the back and surely they won’t allow this to happen again. Traditionally, forwards on Horan’s teams work so hard that they make sure that every ball put inside is done so under severe pressure. That work rate was notable by its absence in Croke Park that day and has only improved marginally in championship. This is central to their identity and I expect a huge increase in it tomorrow, led by Cillian O’Connor.
They could also opt to play an extra back. Could Horan select his captain Stephen Coen in the half forward line and withdraw him as a permanent sweeper in front of the Kerry full forward line? Coen would also be good on the ball coming out and could release the other running backs such as Keegan, Paddy Durcan and Oisín Mullin to rampage up the field. While this will obviously make life harder for the Kerry full forward line it will free up Tadhg Morley to do his thing at the other side of the field. This is the conundrum for Horan. Normally he would play with six up to occupy Morley but can he afford to try that this time?
If Horan elected to play O’Shea at 14, it could cause Tadhg a different problem. Normally against Mayo a sweeper would have their starting position at the top of the ‘D’. This allows them to be in a good position to deal with any runners that breach the first line of defence. However if O’Shea was inside, Tadhg would probably drop much deeper to protect Jason Foley against direct ball inside. In turn, this would allow space outside for Keegan et al to attack. He hasn’t done it yet this year and O’Shea could as easily materialise as a sweeper at the other end of the pitch, but it will be interesting to see if Horan has something different up his sleeve. He has the stubbornness to stick with his principles, something I admire, but it remains to be seen if has has the pragmatism to change them. As Groucho Marx (and Homer Simpson) said “Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well I have some others.”
Kerry have done everything asked of them so far. They have put themselves in a great position as crunch time approaches. While they have not been tested in a long time they will arrive in Croke Park with their strongest squad in years, fresh and with a point or three to prove. Since their last championship visit, what has Jack changed about them and will it be enough?
The obvious one is how well they are playing without the ball. They are well structured with Morley minding the house but significantly as a team they are working extremely hard for each other. Diarmuid O’Connor, Jack Barry, Seán O’Shea, Adrian Spillane, Stephen O’Brien, Dara Moynihan and Paudie Clifford are all working like dogs, forcing turnovers and putting pressure on any deliveries to their back line. While Paddy Tally’s influence is significant, I imagine, these are the hallmarks of all successful Jack O’Connor teams. That willingness to work will be vital tomorrow particularly when it comes to tracking the runs of Mayo’s strike runners.
They will also be conscious of the need to get back up the pitch and be a threat offensively to make sure they are playing the game on their terms. A further change that is helping with the structure is the willingness to kick the ball through the lines. Last year Kerry had a tendency to run a lot of ball and this meant they were often pulled badly out of shape - Exhibit A being Conor McKenna’s first goal in last year's semi final.
That willingness to kick keeps much better shape and also means that the backs have energy to defend with intent, which is, after all their job, rather than burning all their fuel tearing up the field, which is a bonus. The team is a year older and a year wiser. They realise now that the patience afforded a young developing team is running out. They will feel that way themselves and be aware that it is high time to deliver and perform at the top of their game in Croke Park in championship.
Last year will have cut deep and it gives them an angle to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Proving others wrong and proving themselves right will be very satisfying.
While I appreciate as much as anyone what Mayo will bring tomorrow - and bring it they will - I feel Kerry will win.
In a way they have to.
