Derek McGrath: If a trilogy beckons this is the chapter where Waterford must fight

Waterford's Michael Kiely of Waterford in action against Declan Hannon of Limerick during the All-Ireland Senior Championship semi-final in 2021. Picture: Eóin Noonan/Sportsfile

Three talking points ahead of Limerick v Waterford

1. Breaking the line…or a bit of both?

More than interesting to hear John Kiely lament the number of line breaks Limerick coughed up to Cork on Sunday last. Chances conceded to Conor Lehane, Shane Barrett and Jack O'Connor should have resulted in green flags. A closer analysis of the last two games between Waterford and Limerick points to Waterford butchering at least eight clear goalscoring opportunities. 

One might rightly point to the brilliance of Nickie Quaid in saving shots from Jamie Barron and Austin Gleeson last year but one senses that the opportunities spurned by Jack Fagan, Calum Lyons and Stephen Bennett in previous encounters will likely see them take an extra yard or extra pass to ensure a completely clinical approach.

Tipperary’s razor-like first half focus on preventing the counter-attack involved a condensed six backs with Ronan Maher lodging on the edge of the D. Essentially this meant that the one thing you cannot allow Waterford — 'grass to run into' — was deprived. But the depth with which Waterford played in the second half acted as a catalyst for the creation of space in front of Dessie Hutchinson and Mikey Kiely. 

Sean O'Donnell and Paul Kinnerk will have put huge focus on Waterford’s power plays just after half-time. Many will point to the Mikey Kiely goal but the play directly after it on 37mins 32 secs is even more compelling. 

There are 10 bodies under the Brian Hogan puckout. Conor Gleeson wins and offloads to Calum Lyons to set the counter-attack in motion and Barron makes his way into the grass to receive the pass and score. Limerick will try and ensure that instead of grass Waterford will run into bodies and traffic.

The equally brilliant Michael Bevans will probably have spent time this week considering a tweak to the Déise game plan. A team built on hard running and pace, Waterford may look at moving the ball as well as themselves at breakneck speed. This may involve 'breaking the line', but also quicker deliveries to an inside three. 

The very few games where Limerick have struggled in the last few years include the Kilkenny semi-final of 19 and the first half of last year's Munster Final. Both Kilkenny and Tipperary launched aerial attacks on the central spine of the Limerick defence. Tipperary got great momentum from long direct puckouts that managed to get Declan Hannon and Diarmuid Byrnes going back towards their own goal.

2. Curveballs now or save them for later 

John Kiely's naming of a dummy team, the subsequent performances of Mikey Casey and Kyle Hayes, underlines the constant evolution of Limerick. I remember in 2016 preparing for a league semi-final against Limerick and putting a huge focus on the free-scoring marauding number 12, a certain Barry Nash. The adaptability of the modern player continues to impress, and I wonder will both managers be tempted to roll the dice with one or two subtle changes. 

Expected switches will see Austin Gleeson and Jamie Barron return to the starting fold but I wonder will management consider Jamie’s 10-minute cameo at full-forward in last year’s semi-final where his difference in terms of stature and craft gave Dan Morrissey a challenging conclusion. 

Do you take him away from the snare of Will O'Donoghue at the start even for 20 minutes, before restoring him to his home in the middle of the field?

Limerick may keep further curveballs for later in the year, but a possible sextet of forwards from Lynch, Hegarty, Morrissey, Hayes, Gillane, Flanagan, Mulcahy and a mid-season returning Peter Casey provides a world of possibilities once qualification has been secured. 

The chance then exists to change the narrative around the opposition's obsession with Lynch by using a battering ram in Hayes at 11 and Lynch in a free role with Hegarty taking up temporary residence on the edge of the square. All free to revert to normality once damage is done.

Much of Waterford's focus will have been on the performance of Diarmuid Byrnes. I spent lots of my winter looking at Limerick from behind the goal and Byrnes' zonal play is hugely influential. The first outlet as a fourth in the full-back line for Nickie Quaid on many puckouts, he generally leaves his half forward forage deep down the field. Tracking wing forwards like Morrissey or Hegarty, and often Darragh O' Donovan, ensure ample cover.

The Waterford 12 may play more of a “lie up” role to avoid the concession of long-range points to Byrnes, or the Limerick man may be monitored from behind by the 15.

Or Bevans may consider matching Byrnes with Austin, a player Limerick know they cannot leave free at any stage. 

Of course the focus on Byrnes means the genius of Kinnerk will be on high alert. This week Byrnes' focus could be on shutting down his direct opponent and working like a dog for the team.

3. The trilogy begins?

Limerick's mood and intent was obvious on Sunday, a team highly motivated where metrics and passion were perfectly fused. The immediate focus post-match was on a performance for the “people of the Gaelic Grounds”. Equally as impressive was the mental strength and resolve shown by Waterford to push back a ravenous Tipperary, cope with expectancy, defy the initial sense they were underperforming, and to begin to flow coming down the stretch.

I firmly believe that tomorrow evening will be the first of three meetings between these two teams. Waterford’s need to lay down a championship marker against Limerick echoes Aragorn’s famous speech at the Black Gate in Tolkien’s trilogy. “This day we fight,” he declared. Waterford can fight their way to a precious two points. 

This crystal ball could see Limerick attain a level of revenge in the Munster Final before the trilogy is completed with victory for ourselves on the 24th of July. Then Tolkien’s words will be even more telling: “The crownless again shall be King”