Éamonn Fitzmaurice: This Dublin team are still excellent at defying convention

PINCER MOVEMENT: Dublin’s Con O’Callaghan is surrounded by Mayo’s Michael Plunkett, Diarmuid O’Connor, and Stephen Coen in last year’s All-Ireland final. He’ll require similar levels of attention today. Picture: Daire Brennan/Sportsfile

“The Gods cannot help those who do not seize opportunities.” 

- Confucius 

Opportunity knocks for Mayo in Croke Park this evening but until we see Dublin slain it is hard to envisage it.

They have gone on for so long now and have survived so many big games that they remind me of the Mercury Man in Terminator 2, who seemed indestructible until Arnie got him in the end.

For Mayo to have any chance they will need to perform as they did in the second half of the Connacht final for the entire contest. Their first half display or their second half performance against Clare in their final league game will see them fall well short.

The trademark intensity that they brought to bear in the second half against Galway was impressive — scoring five points from turnovers — and will need to be present throughout this evening.

Based purely on their performances so far this year Dublin have regressed. We will find out today if that slippage is terminal or if they have been waiting for this stage and this opposition all year to click back into top gear.

Will the sight of the Mayo jersey and the significance of an All-Ireland semi-final get them going? Maybe. The thing with Dublin is that there is a pattern of underperformance, going right back through the league and on into the Leinster Championship.

Yes they are still doing enough to win but they are doing things that they haven’t done for years. While they continue to work hard for each other (which has been their saving grace and is the hallmark of champions) they have been sloppy, dropping balls into the goalkeeper’s hands, kicking poor wides, and not creating goal chances.

Some of their most important players look disinterested and short of energy with Brian Fenton yet to get motoring. A heaving Hill 16 is absent to give them an additional push during the clutch moments. We have been waiting for the customary response from the champions that silences the noise around their form but it hasn’t been forthcoming. Yet. It is difficult to just turn on that kind of form.

However, if this great team have shown us one thing over the last decade, it’s that they are excellent at defying convention.

One of the biggest challenges that Mayo will face is how to counteract Dublin when they go into possession mode. While it can be tedious to watch it is extremely effective and they will persist with it as long as they keep winning matches.

When they go through these interminable phases of keep ball they are tiring the opposition out to create the gaps that lead to the high percentage shots.

Simultaneously they are resting and recovering as they take the pace out of the game.

This is their primary weapon now and is energy-sapping and demoralising to play against. It is death by a thousand cuts. For me Mayo will have to aggressively push out and go man for man all over the field when Dublin are in the possession.

In particular they have to go after the Dublin backs that ordinarily have plenty of time on the ball to go back and over the field as they probe the opposition. Jonny Cooper is often central to this.

Every Mayo player should tag his opposite number, be within touching distance of him when Dublin have the ball to make sure they are constantly putting pressure on as they try to force turnovers.

They can’t allow Dublin time on the ball to settle, get comfortable and work their way through the game. Disruption and chaos has to be the name of their game even if it means they are open at the back. Mayo have the bravery, mindset, and athleticism to challenge Dublin in this manner but can they sustain it for a full match?

A further challenge for Mayo is to try to shut them out at the back. Dublin’s ability to get goals over the years has broken Mayo hearts on more than one occasion.

Today represents the 10th time that they have played each other in 10 championships including replays since 2012. Coincidentally, Mayo have kept a clean sheet once in that time, the only time they won, in 2012 when the final score was 0-19 to 0-16. They have conceded 16 goals (and scored only six) across the other eight games, including, incredibly two own goals in the 2016 drawn game.

Con O’Callaghan has scored four goals in the last three games and Mayo will have to shut him down. Oisín Mullin — if available — will be tasked with this job. While he has been outstanding at centre-back this year both defensively and offensively the critical nature of the O’Callaghan assignment dictates that he may have to go back into the full-back line.

If Mullin contains Con then Mayo have a great chance of winning. Coming off a disappointing Leinster final this will be a big ask as O’Callaghan will be anxious to react.

Similarly Ciarán Kilkenny, who continues to perform at his customary high levels, will have to be accounted for. Paddy Durcan did well on him in the first half of last year’s final until he went off injured.

If Kilkenny plays inside this could upset Mayo’s balance but Durcan will still try to attack from there when Mayo have the ball.

Additionally, for Mayo to win Niall Scully has to be marked tightly and his influence curbed.

Previously teams underestimated his importance and cheated off him to augment their defensive cover closer to goal. His critical point guard role continues to evolve and is now universally appreciated.

James Horan may elect to start Eoghan McLaughlin to give him the Scully job.

He has the athleticism to stay with him and put him going the other way when Mayo have the ball and he possesses the physicality to disrupt the Templeogue Synge Street man.

These match-ups will rob Mayo of some of their go forward power from the back but this may be a chance for Lee Keegan to revert to a role that he has excelled at in the past.

Finally, it will be interesting to see who picks up Matthew Ruane at midfield for Dublin. Most likely it will be James McCarthy who has long been hammering the oppositions hammer. The fact Ruane was awarded the player of the month this week puts a bullseye on his back for Dublin and this will be a great test for him.

A further intriguing aspect of the game is where James Horan is going to deploy Aidan O’Shea.

As captain and the most senior player it is of paramount importance to Mayo that he plays well. If he underperforms it will drain energy from his team and supporters.

He has struggled against Dublin in the past and regardless of his positioning they have always run off him. Last day out, Paul Conroy gave him a belly full of it in the first half.

His relocation to full-forward significantly improved things for both the player and the team. Inside he provides a focus for Mayo. He has excellent hands, his playmaking skills can be used to great effect as can his tackling ability as a first line of defence as Dublin emerge with the ball. The likes of Davy Byrne will still look to run off him but he needs to pass on the runners and stay close to goal.

Andy Moran was excellent at this for years and it can create mismatches if the ball is turned over. He can come to the middle of the field at times if needed and has rotated with Conor Loftus in the past.

I feel that he is of most benefit to Mayo and most danger to Dublin at the edge of the square for this one. It will be interesting to see if both manager and player have the patience and perseverance to leave him there for most of the game.

Finally, Evan Comerford is a top-class keeper and I am looking forward to seeing how he gets on this evening. While we all appreciate his skillset the real test comes when the pressure is on in a big match at the tail end of the championship. Mayo are good at disrupting kickouts and have rattled Stephen Cluxton in the past. It will be interesting to see what they have planned for Comerford and how he reacts to it.

On the evidence provided thus far he will be fine, but his first big acid test awaits.

I’m anticipating with excitement the standard Dublin and Mayo barnstorming encounter later. We are finally going to find out if the champions still have the stomach for another battle or if their hunger has indeed been finally sated. Horan deserves massive credit for regenerating Mayo in this his second coming. Conventional wisdom decreed that as the old brigade departed Mayo would go into a period of hibernation. The opposite has been the case.

Platitudes and plámas are no good to him though, it’s Sam he wants.