Sinn Féin gains set in context
Her comments serve only to add credence to the false claims of many Sinn Féin members that the recent elections represent some kind of seismic shift in the political landscape towards their unique brand of policy-free, protest-vote politics. A sober analysis of the election results conflicts sharply with this viewpoint.
It is true that Sinn Féin more than doubled their local authority representation but these gains must be kept in perspective. Doubling their numbers from a low base of a mere 24 seats is not the landslide they would have us believe.
Much has also been made of the fact that Sinn Féin got approximately 30,000 more votes than in the 2002 general election. This statistic must also be viewed in relative terms, considering that it pales in comparison with the 90,000 votes picked up by Fine Gael since 2002.
FG gained 15 seats from a base that was considered by most commentators to be impossibly high when facing into the local elections. They are now in control of 25 local authorities, either on their own or with the support of other parties and Independents.
Sinn Féin consider themselves to be the only 'all-Ireland' party yet there are vast swathes of the country where they failed even to come close to electoral success. They have no representation at all on 13 of the 34 local authorities. They have no city or county councillors in 10 of the 26 counties of the State, and just one councillor in a further five counties.
Despite the impression given in Ms Dundon's article, Sinn Féin have managed to muster the requisite numbers on just three local authorities to force their way into pacts with Fianna Fáil.
In contrast with their fabled success in urban areas, they have no representation at all in Limerick city, despite the total collapse of Fianna Fáil support there. These realities do not correspond with any recent media comment on the election results.
Amid this recent media frenzy, gains of seven or eight Dáil seats have been predicted for Sinn Féin, prompting gasps of disbelief from some commentators about what this feat might herald.
However, the Irish Examiner has devoted precious few column inches in applying the same analysis to the mainstream opposition parties who would together gain up to 25 seats in a general election if they held their local election support, with Fine Gael clawing back all of their 2002 losses. This would be a veritable electoral landslide in comparison to the paltry advances of Sinn Féin. So why isn't Mary Dundon concentrating her energies on this prospect?
The patchy advance of Sinn Féin will not bring about a change of government. Strong gains for a Fine Gael-led alternative will. In my opinion, it is this alternative which is the "force to be reckoned with" in Irish politics today.
Barry Walsh,
Tyone,
Clonlough,
Mitchelstown,
Co Cork.
Mary Dundon responds:
The reason Sinn Féin's gains have been given such media coverage is because they have been made by a party which up to recently had the ballot box in one hand and the Armalite in another.
There is also a prospect down the road that they could become coalition partners with Fianna Fáil if the decommissioning issue in the North is resolved before the next general election in 2007.
It is true that the mainstream opposition parties could provide a strong alternative government if they repeat their local election successes in 2007.
But the big question is will Labour, Fine Gael and the Greens get their act together this time in advance of the election and form a pre-election pact.
If they don't, then Fianna Fáil is far more likely to look to Sinn Féin as a possible coalition partner if they tire of the Progressive Democrats than to any of the Rainbow Coalition parties.
