Irish Examiner view: Two-state solution is now more practical

Minister Eamon Ryan, Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tanaiste Micheal Martin speaking to the media outside Government Buildings as Ireland recognised the state of Palestine. Picture: Damien Storan/PA

History was made yesterday when Ireland, along with Spain and Norway, recognised the state of Palestine.

It is only a century since Irish representatives were seeking similar recognition for this country after the First World War, so it is appropriate Ireland was to the fore in this diplomatic initiative.

Recognising a sovereign state is powerfully symbolic. It is an overt acknowledgement that the citizens of that state are entitled to self-determination, as Palestine’s ambassador to Ireland has pointed out: It is the ultimate articulation of freedom.

Lest readers think issues related to the recognition of Palestine are a matter of gestures and symbolism, there are stark real-world consequences. For instance, recognition means the long-discussed two-state solution becomes less aspirational and more practical.

This, in turn, raises further questions: Where does Hamas fit into this picture? Israel has been quick to point to divisions in Palestine between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and it was notable that both the Taoiseach and Tánaiste rightly made a point of denouncing Hamas yesterday.

The former went so far as to say the Palestinian people are not Hamas in his remarks, but this distinction will need to be teased out further if some form of workable settlement in the region is to be achieved.

Formal recognition of Palestine will also have to be factored into events occurring far from the Middle East itself, but which are being directly influenced by the conflict in Gaza. For instance, even as Ireland was recognising Palestine’s right to exist, the US was deepening its commitment to Israel.

We learned this week that president Joe Biden’s administration is to work with the US Congress on possible sanctions against the International Criminal Court, after it announced it was seeking arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials — as well as members of Hamas, it should be noted.

Mr Biden’s staunch support for Israel should also be viewed in the context of what is expected to be a serious challenge from former president Donald Trump in the US elections later this year. The conflict in Gaza has the potential to become a major factor in those elections, and not just because of the powerful pro-Israel lobby in the US.

That lobby means Mr Biden cannot afford to be seen as less supportive of Israel than his challenger, but there are other complications. Mr Biden may not be outflanked on Israel by Mr Trump, but he may be outspent. Mr Trump is reportedly seeking the financial support of Miriam Adelson, the fifth-richest woman in America and an uncompromising supporter of Israel. Her backing — and her $30bn fortune — could tip the contest his way.

Having lost relatives in the Holocaust, she can hardly have been impressed by Mr Trump’s reference this week to a “unified reich” in his vision for the future, but such is political rhetoric in 2024. That Mr Trump is a likely president at all, shows both words and actions can be inflammatory without consequences in US politics today.

Israel itself was predictably critical of Ireland’s recognition of Palestine. Its government said the Irish decision was “undermining its sovereignty and security”.

However, Israel’s government knows Ireland and other nations — in Europe and the Middle East — are working to find a diplomatic solution, with meetings scheduled this week to that end in Brussels. Ordinary Israelis must see that Mr Netanyahu’s tactics do not bode well for Israel’s future and only embolden its enemies, of which Ireland is not one.

Readers with long memories may recall other occasions on which those seeking to move beyond conflict to peace were also harshly criticised. In his time, the late John Hume was attacked savagely for seeking to move beyond violence to engagement — but he was proven right.

It is to be hoped that yesterday marks a step on a similar path to the laying down of arms, mutual respect for life, and ultimately, peace.

Tory victory would be a major shock

Yesterday was a day for devotees of The Thick of It and In The Loop, masterful political comedies from Armando Iannucci.

They surely recognised a real-life equivalent of those shows in British prime minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement of a general election across the water.

And water was the operative term. Mr Sunak made his announcement from a podium outside Number 10 Downing Street with spilling rain drenching his suit.

As he spoke, the ’90s pop hit ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ could be heard in the background, distracting from his speech.

In and of itself, this would have been remarkable mismanagement, but political buffs will recall that the song was the soundtrack to Labour’s 1997 landslide victory, which ended years of Tory rule. The general expectation is that the British electorate is waiting to punish Mr Sunak’s Tories again, and the charge sheet is certainly a long one — from the chaotic ravages of austerity to the economic disaster caused by Brexit, not forgetting the mismanagement of the pandemic which saw off one of Mr Sunak’s predecessors, the clownish Boris Johnson.

It would be foolish to expect the British election not to throw up some surprises along the way, but a Tory victory would be a monumental shock. It appears far more likely that Ireland will be dealing with Labour’s Keir Starmer as prime minister after the election in July.

If they can avoid obvious comparisons to TV comedies about political bungling, they will be off to a good start.

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