Our view: Risk assessments: Fifty ways to kill each other

Sat, 05 Aug, 2023 - 06:00

You don’t have to be Margaret Atwood, or a Cormac McCarthy or a commissioning editor for Netflix to find promising and dystopian plot lines in the risk assessments which were published on either side of the Irish Sea just before the weekend.

Ireland’s National Assessment 2023 lists 25 economic, geopolitical, social, environmental, and technological threats facing Ireland over the short, medium, and long-term.

In Westminster, deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden made Britain’s risk register public for the first time ever. It lists 89 threats to Britain.

Artificial intelligence (AI) developments could provide significant jeopardy to jobs in the Republic and spark political instability, warns the Irish report which also considers climate change, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the dangers of nuclear escalation.

Some risks have increased in significance, including those related to the security of our energy supply, fiscal sustainability, protectionism, deglobalisation, and runaway inflation.

AI has potential to generate misinformation, deepfakes, or conspiracy theories, with consequential damage to markets, cohesion and political process.

The report finds that Ireland is an "attractive target" for cyberattacks due to the presence of significant data infrastructure.

It refers also to the threat of rising sea levels and to the global degradation of resistance to disease because of the decreasing effectiveness of antibiotics.

Britain identifies an attack on energy networks as a major risk and has also upgraded the chances of a “catastrophic” pandemic hitting the country as being 5% to 25% likely in a five-year period.

Subsea cables are also highlighted as likely terrorist targets.

There is a grim sub-clause within the report which takes account of the murders of the MPs David Amess and Jo Cox.

Assassination of a public figure carries a likelihood of more than 25%.

It is, of course, possible to terrify ourselves by thinking of all the bad things that could happen, and the growth of political influencers and “nudge units” can have a vested interest in overstatement.

But there is some credence to the argument that the world was complacent in the years before Covid. We do well to keep our eyes open.

Catering crisis

An army marches on its stomach, or so it is said in a phrase which is often attributed to Napoleon. And it’s true that pausing for some scran, or bait and a brew-up can often be a highly restorative booster to sagging morale.

And no less is true of those who patrol the ocean waves.

“Seamen”, said Samuel Pepys, “love their bellies above anything else.”

Of course, times have changed from the simpler, rougher fare of bygone years.

There’s no more ship’s biscuit, salt pork, and rum, or even its diluted alternative, grog (four parts water, one part rum, flavoured with brown sugar and lemon juice to ward off the lack of the vitamin C disease, scurvy).

Grog also had the intended benefit of combating drunkenness, although cunning old sea dogs would simply save up their tots for a spree.

Modern tastes require modern diet. Tenders to provide the Defence Forces with tucker are expected to include produce such as fennel, watercress, lambs lettuce, pak choi, aubergines, avocado, courgettes, chard, celeriac, chives, and wild mushrooms.

Fashionable superfoods such as blueberries, blackberries, sweet potatoes, and ginger have to have their place alongside rocket salad and herbs.

It’s no wonder then, given the dearth of chefs in the hospitality business and the unequal struggle involved in providing delicious food at institutional scale on low-cost budgets, that Defence Force cooks are leaving to locations where they can say “oui chef” and “service” to their hearts’ content.

The navy is badly affected, with forecasts that it will have fewer than half the 54 minimum catering staff required by the end of the year.

The Defence Forces training centre at The Curragh, Co Kildare, is also struggling to fill courses.

Working in a galley onboard ships in a pitching boat in the Atlantic is manifestly less pleasant, and the longer tours away from families is another factor prompting chefs to quit.

Under combat and exercise conditions, sailors and soldiers are used to living off prepared rations and the 24-hour Irish version includes two pre-cooked meals such as beef casserole, chicken curry and, of course, a vegetarian option.

It’s a long way from notorious staples of the past: Spam or bully beef, hardtack, or the Maconochie stew of sliced turnips, carrots, potatoes, onions, haricot beans, and beef in a thin broth infamous for its explosive impact on the digestive system.

Troops expect better. We may find cooking, like coding, is a life skill which should be taught from an early age.

EV grant deadline

There are multiple reasons why motor dealers are not being over-run in the public stampede for electric vehicles, despite the apparent significant boost in demand of the past few weeks.

There are fewer than 2,000 charging points; rates of replenishment vary by type; there is no second-hand market and the major car producers are struggling to deliver volume.

Whatever the complications, achieving higher penetration of EVs is a fundamental plank of governmental climate policy. While an increase of 52.5% in sales in July compared to last year looks encouraging, it starts from a low base.

In total it amounts to 4,161 vehicles.

To place matters in a global context the giant company Toyota recorded an output of 5.6m cars in the first half of 2023.

Just 46,000 of these were electric. The figure for Irish sales so far this year is 18,500.

While every hint of progress is eagerly grasped, the figures are miniscule.

The chances of hitting the Government’s target of 950,000 EVs by the end of the decade are somewhere between zero and nil. Which makes it rather a strange time to be planning to phase out the current raft of incentives and grants to persuade drivers to make the transition.

There are only two choices. Change the targets, which will be a politically divisive move. Or think again about the financial interventions, not only to maintain momentum but to increase it. The forthcoming budget allows an opportunity to do this. That pump should be primed.