Can it really be true, as was suggested this week when research from the National Transport Authority (NTA) resurfaced in the Irish Examiner, that free fares in the local bus systems of the future will have a near-zero impact on demand and usage? Because if it is, then, to borrow a phrase from Private Frazer in Dad’s Army, “we’re doomed”.
If free fares would only stimulate a 1% reduction in motor vehicle trips, as the NTA concluded, then such an initiative would not be worth the candle.
However, such a verdict is reached in the absence of other improvements to the network — a reliable and frequent service in environmentally acceptable vehicles, for example.
Or smart data which predicts the time of the next arrival and gets it right; busways unhindered by parking and traffic; safe journeys unimpeded by antisocial behaviour; adequate staffing; and recognition that rapid transit systems are largely an urban/metropolitan option rather than one which can fully serve rural communities.
There are increasingly powerful reasons for not driving into towns and cities. Clean air is one of them; the cost of petrol — as high now as it was a year ago thanks to the restoration of excise cuts — will inevitably move upwards. Parking costs are becoming punitive, even if you can work the app. Road pricing is on its way.
Social responsibility can be an attractive proposition for people. If we are to move away from our cars, then the key is persuasion and incentives, not compulsion and coercion.
We can witness what happens when this is attempted in the context of climate change. Europe’s environment, agricultural, and fishing committees cannot back the proposed nature restoration laws because they know they cannot be sold to the public or those responsible for food supply.
In Germany, chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeing electoral kickback because of his plans to force homeowners to replace gas or oil boilers with heat pumps from next January.
Volkswagen has cut electric car production because customers don’t like the prices, and because the difference between gasoline and electricity costs is negligible.
Consumers, with increasing demands on their budgets, including political levies, are becoming more price sensitive and antagonistic to cash raids.
Financial efficiency is the key to winning support for radical environmental change.
But it must be seen to be fair. Activists should dial down the self-righteous volume and spend more time considering how to address the tangible, contemporary, self-interests of fellow citizens. This, and not permanent hectoring and demonstrations, is the key to winning support for meaningful action.
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