Irish Examiner view: Dear prudence versus a giveaway budget — that's Ireland's choice

The question is whether Irish people who can recall the chaos of 2008 are likely to be in the mood for stability in Budget 2024

Finance Minister Michael McGrath has been deploying the term 'prudent' about Budget 2024. Picture: Damien Storan/PA

The push and pull of energy and economics weren’t the only source of contradiction and conflict this week.

In traditional Minister for Finance mode, incumbent Michael McGrath was deploying the term “prudent” about the upcoming budget, and in doing so he was backed strongly by his party leader and Tanaiste, Micheal Martin.

This is hardly surprising, as the huge corporate tax receipts of recent times have fuelled expectation of a giveaway budget.

What was unexpected was Taoiseach Leo Varadkar advocating strongly against a budget that might be too cautious, going so far as to tell a National Economic Dialogue meeting that that was “not something we should stand over given our fiscal position”.

This apparent contradiction comes weighted with plenty of political baggage. 

As has been pointed out, this is the first time since 2010 that a Fianna Fáil finance minister will present a budget: In terms of basic political theatre, it is a significant step for the party after it was all but wiped out in the aftermath of the financial crash back in 2008.

For Fine Gael, there is a more traditional political dynamic at play, with a view abroad that Mr Varadkar’s shot across the Fianna Fail bows was not so much a matter of asserting his party’s independent outlook as asserting his own leadership.

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Over recent weeks, there has been a good deal of speculation about Mr Varadkar’s command of his party, and in that context taking such a different tack to his coalition partners about such a notoriously sensitive subject is risky — governments have fallen on budget measures in the past, after all. 

He may feel it is a way to carve out a distinct identity for his party as the champions of those working hard and struggling to make ends meet, but it comes with its own perils.

Those perils are largely political, however. For Irish people whose memories run to the terrible stresses and chaos of 2008 and its aftermath, there are greater dangers associated with risk-taking at budget time. Are they more likely to be in the mood for prudence and stability?