Irish Examiner view: The West cannot bow to Putin's threats

The civilised world must remember that appeasement did not work with Adolf Hitler and it will not work with Vladimir Putin

Russian president Vladimir Putin is the latest autocrat whose sanity has been the cause of speculation but the west ought to focus instead on a lesson from history — appeasement does not work with dictators. Picture: Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/AP 

Following his less-than-subtle threats against “new targets” in Ukraine if the US sends long-range rockets as part of its military aid package to the country, questions are once more being asked about the wellbeing of the Russian president.

These are questions that seemingly are the lot of authoritarian behemoths down the years. 

Is he mad? Is he ill? 

Many autocrats have faced such doubts over the years — Hitler, Ceausescu, Castro, Kim Jong-un — and usually they amount to little more than idle speculation.

Speculation about Putin’s wellbeing is being fuelled by the unpredictability that has emerged in the Russian leadership following battlefield reversals, tactical misjudgements and, most seriously, underestimating the willingness and ability of the Ukrainians to fight. 

However, it would be very unwise to attribute any of this to the Russian leader’s health.

It may be that history will show Putin to have been unwell prior to and during his illegal and merciless campaign in Ukraine but, for the moment, any threats coming from the Kremlin have to be treated with great caution and some degree of fear. He still carries the nuclear suitcase around with him, after all.

However, what western leaders have to factor into their deliberations is the unpredictable nature of Putin’s posturing. He said he never intended to invade Ukraine and then did so; and he said his forces would only attack military positions and then he allowed them to shell civilian targets.

Adolf Hitler with (left to right) field marshal Wilhelm Keitel, admiral Karl Doenitz, interior minister and head of the SS, Heinrich Himmler, and field marshal general Erhard Milch in May, 1944. File picture: AP

His aggressive misinformation has led to a willingness of western leaders to appease him. Appeasement did not work with Hitler in 1939 and it is not working with Putin now. Unfortunately, until Putin is satisfied with the land gains he has made in Russia’s name or has run out of the wherewithal to run an effective campaign, we will not know his ultimate aim.

For now, we have to watch as very careful judgement calls are made about Putin’s intent, but the US and its allies cannot under any circumstance bend in the face of vague threats coming out of Moscow.

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If Putin is serious about reprisals, we may have to wait to see what they might be. Equally, if he is unwell, only time will tell us to what extent.