Irish Examiner view: Domino theory of states that collapse put to test by Ukraine war

Many countries on the watch list as global food crisis looms due to Ukraine war

Ukrainians wait for a food distribution organised by the Red Cross in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv. Picture: Emilio Morenatti/AP

As the Russians further attempt to exacerbate the impending global food crisis by the bombardment of the strategically important Zadoka Bridge — one of the few remaining routes for the export of Ukrainian grain to the land border with Moldova and Romania — the world waits to see the next country whose government will fall from bankruptcy and chaos.

Before February, African countries imported some 44% of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia. About 22m tons of grain are stuck in the war-torn country and there is one month to get supplies out before the start of the next harvest.

The chairman of the African Union, Macky Sall, president of Senegal, who was scheduled to meet Vladimir Putin on Friday, says continuing the blockade will provoke a “catastrophic scenario” of price increases and food shortages.

Sri Lanka, which was already experiencing its worst economic and food crisis in 73 years of independence, has been the first country to experience regime change following the outbreak of war in Europe. In the middle of an experiment, now abandoned, to switch totally to organic farming methods, annual inflation for local staples soared, reaching 60% for red chilis, 75% for potatoes, and 64% for Nadu rice.

Triple crisis

The triple crisis of the impact of the pandemic, the rising cost of sovereign debt, and the increase in food and fuel prices caused by Russia’s invasion is affecting low- and medium-income countries and Sri Lanka, which likes to market itself as Serendip, or ‘The Resplendent Isle’, is a bellwether of what might happen elsewhere.

A protester runs for cover as police fire tear gas shells in Colombo, Sri Lanka on May 28. The country, which was already experiencing its worst economic and food crisis in 73 years of independence, has been the first to experience regime change following the outbreak of war in Europe. Picture: Eranga Jayawardena/AP

In that country, school examinations were postponed indefinitely because of lack of foreign reserves to import paper; scheduled surgery was suspended because of a lack of medicines; and hospitals ran out of endotracheal tubes for the ventilation of new-born babies, infants, and children. Doctors were forced to reuse old equipment and carried out operations by the light of mobile phones. The ruling Rajapaksa family was burnt out of its home and resigned from office.

Concerns

For the IMF and the World Bank, the consideration must be how many other nations might collapse in a grim new rendition of the domino theory of political contagion, which dominated strategic thinking in the 1950s and 1960s.

World Bank president David Malpass said last month: “I’m deeply concerned about developing countries. They are facing sudden price increases for energy, fertiliser, and food, and the likelihood of interest rate increases.”

The United Nations body responsible for monitoring trade and development, Unctad, calculates that 107 countries faced at least one of the three major economic shocks of rising food prices, increasing energy prices, and tighter financial conditions. However, 69 of those countries face all three at once.

On the watch list are Egypt and Tunisia, both heavily reliant on Russian and Ukrainian grain. Pakistan has already imposed power cuts because of high-cost energy imports. Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, and Ethiopia are vulnerable, as are El Salvador and Peru.

Financial distress

Nearly two thirds of the lowest-income countries were in
financial distress or at high risk of it before the invasion of Ukraine. The cost of servicing debt is escalating, particularly for nations that made their borrowings in foreign currencies.

For many years we heard much about the benefits of globalisation. We could be about to receive a detailed education on the demerits.