Irish Examiner view: Planning is key to sustaining solidarity in fighting pandemic

If versions of Covid-19 will be among us indefinitely we will have to find a way of living with it that recognises but minimises threat

More than 22,000 fans were in the National Arena in Bucharest for the Euro 2020 soccer championship round of 16 match between France and Switzerland on Monday. Picture: Robert Ghement/Pool via AP

It can hardly have escaped the attention of those at Monday night’s Cabinet sub-committee meeting that just as they began to consider harrowing Covid predictions that a great number of their peers were enthralled by France and Switzerland’s European Championship thriller from Bucharest, just over 3,000km from where they sat. 

The game, and the crowds at it, certainly did not escape the attention of those whose hopes of a return to face-to-face business were long-fingered yet again yesterday afternoon.

That game was spectacular but was decided on penalties, always a less than satisfactory way to end a thrilling contest. 

That, however, is not be the enduring impression. 

The well-honed disinterest of Irish soccer fans watching these competitions was not enough to blind them to the fact, the niggling fact, that more than 22,000 fans were in the National Arena in Bucharest. 

Some wore masks but the great majority did not. 

That game came 10 days after almost 60,000 fans watched Hungary play France at the same stadium.

How Nphet might regard such a carnival is not hard to imagine even if the very hard choices facing that midnight committee are. 

Monday night’s worst-case scenario offered a possible 700,000 cases across July, August, and September leading to 2,170 deaths; the most benign projection spoke of 81,000 cases and 165 deaths. 

There are no circumstances where a democratically elected government, if it is to retain the authority to lead, can ignore advice as grim as that — no matter how goadingly the French and Swiss cavorted.

That meeting considered modelling that estimated almost 13,000 hospital admissions over three months, and more than 1,600 people in intensive care units (ICU). 

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It is not necessary to know that at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic the HSE had fewer than 400 ICU beds to appreciate the impact of such an explosion.

Our hospitals would be overrun and possibly pushed beyond the point of collapse. That such an avoidable vulnerability persists on one scale or another is a consequence of planning.

So too were the evasive answers around the vaccine certification that might be needed to resume indoor dining offered by Health Minister Stephen Donnelly yesterday afternoon. 

He insisted, implausibly, that the idea that such certification might be necessary only became obvious in recent days even though the desirability of such certification has been obvious for months, especially for international travel. 

That faux surprise squanders credibility, an increasingly scarce commodity. 

Unfortunately, disingenuous offerings like this do as much to undermine public commitment to the latest restrictions every bit as much as a football carnival in Bucharest.

Yesterday’s announcements were as expected as they were disheartening and they must be seen as almost a final throw of the dice. 

If, as seems increasingly likely, a version of this wretched infection will be among us indefinitely we will have to find a way of living with it that recognises but minimises threat. 

Far better planning is required to achieve that. At the risk of over-stretching the football analogy — time has run out and the penalty shoot-out has begun.