Irish Examiner view: So much is at stake in seismic poll

If votes bring change then it would be beyond reckless of a Biden administration not to face the demons that got Donald Trump elected in 2016.

This land is your land, and this land is my land

From the California, to the New York Island

From the Redwood Forest, to the Gulf stream waters

This land was made for you and me

- Woody Guthrie

That it is hopelessly naive to invoke the idealism of another time on the morning of an American election, one that will have huge, life-changing significance far beyond Woody Guthrie's homeland, shows how very far our world and our hopes have fallen.

The optimism, the tolerance and the belief in universal opportunity and democracy that were the heartbeat of nearly all political life in the West just half a century ago have been replaced by anger, high emotion, fear, routine dishonesty, racism, almost unbridgeable polarisation and increasingly dark authoritarianism. That Woody Guthrie would be, according to the criteria applied by US attorney general William Barr today, be seen as an "Antifa” Marxist and a target of the FBI’s anti-terror units encapsulates that fall in a tiny but all-too revealing way.

Yet, despite that deliberate and dangerous withdrawal from the wider world, the largely — though not always — benign ambitions of earlier American leaders have been cast aside; nativism has replaced internationalism, diatribe has replaced deliberation. The legacy of the rejuvenating, post-WWII Marshall Plan has been shot through by America's withdrawal from one international institution or agreement after another. Where once a hand was offered, it has been withdrawn.

Yet, despite this retreat, this retrenchment, America remains one of, if not the, most powerful influences in our world. It all but defines our contemporary culture. It sets the terms and conditions of much of the international economy and investment — tax and social media rules too — we have come to rely on so disproportionately. It, for the moment at least, remains the pre-eminent economic force.

That force will resonate deeply in Ireland when the votes are counted. Beef farmers in Croom will be, or at least should be, interested in how Coryell County in Texas votes. Should those votes entrust a second term to President Trump then, almost overnight, a hard Brexit becomes a renewed possibility. The tariffs that would bring would destroy rural Ireland's economy.

If those votes bring change then it would be beyond reckless of a Biden administration not to face the demons that got Trump elected in 2016. That two, two-term Democratic presidents over the past three decades did not resolve structural issues corroding America's democracy and society must set the terms and objectives of a new administration. They must acknowledge that America was heading for the rocks long before President Trump gave his infamous speech to the "largest inauguration crowd ever."

As ever, race is at the heart of that challenge, maybe more so than at any time since Guthrie died in 1967. The divisions of race are exacerbated by a dysfunctional electoral system that continually defies the popular vote. One academic has warned: “By 2040, 70% of Americans will live in the 15 largest states. That means 70% of America will be represented by only 30 senators, while the other 30% of America will be represented by 70 senators.” It is difficult to see how, in such a high-testosterone society that might stand or how institutionalised gerrymandering and voter suppression could continue in those circumstances. It is tempting, from a European, social-democratic perspective at least, to hope that the 100m votes cast up to Sunday are an indication that huge numbers of Americans, a decisive number hopefully, have decided that these fundamental issues need to be addressed in a way so obviously beyond the sympathies or capabilities of President Trump or his Proud Boy militias. 

There is a distracting number of issues that offer opportunities to challenge President Trump — climate change and coronavirus for example — but his presidency highlighted a human trait and weakness. It showed how so many people are prepared to compromise on basic principles to advance their causes. American, and Irish, conservative Catholics and Christian evangelists have aligned themselves with Trump ina deeply shameful and hypocritical way.