Irish Examiner View: Coming election a volcanic test for US democracy

Echoes of Cumann na nGaedheal-Fianna Fáil rivalry to Trump-Biden face-off in November. Will he accept the result as easily?

A passerby stops to take a selfie with foam sculpture depictions of US president Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. Picture: Joe Cavaretta/AP

After our February 1932 general election, Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party came together to form a minority government. When the 153 members of the seventh Dáil assembled at Leinster House, on March 9, 1932, Cumann na nGaedheal, under WT Cosgrave, had to give way to its bitter Civil War enemies, Fianna Fáil, under Éamon de Valera. 

It may have been a bittersweet moment for Cumann na nGaedheal; it was in power since 1922 but recognised that a real, democratic mandate had been fairly expressed and responded accordingly. 

There were fears at the time, justifiable or otherwise, that tribalism might usurp democracy and that the transfer of power might be contested. That it was not remains one of the seminal moments, after centuries of conflict, that secured the democracy we still enjoy today. 

Any debate on whether WT Cosgrave is best personified by America's Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden or whether Éamon de Valera is best represented by White House incumbent Donald Trump hardly seems important in today's gathering gloom over what might happen when America's votes are counted after the November 3 election. 

In an unprecedented statement, Mr Trump this week refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power after the election. Just as our democracy was copperfastened by such a transfer carried out peacefully, America's may be destroyed by a heady mixture of despotism, narcissism, dishonesty, and a constituency increasingly uninterested in actuality or democratic norms. 

The stakes are indeed very high — and not just for America. We all have, one way or another, skin in this game.

Asked if he would commit to a peaceful transfer in light of simmering unrest in several cities, Mr Trump replied: “Well we’re going to have to see what happens... There won’t be a transfer, there’ll be a continuation. The ballots are out of control.” 

This is another reference to the role postal voting may play in the election. Mr Trump has knowingly and dishonestly undermined this long-established process without any evidence but with clear and malicious intent. His determination to nominate Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Supreme Court successor before the election is another expression of clear and malicious intent. That malice is exacerbated by the very real prospect that the court may eventually have to rule on the election's outcome. 

Julian Castro, one of Barack Obama’s cabinet members, tweeted: “In one day, Trump refused a peaceful transition of power and urged the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice to hand him an election if the results are contested. This is fascism, alive and well in the Republican Party.”

In one day, Trump refused a peaceful transition of power and urged the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice to hand him an election if the results are contested.

This is fascism, alive and well in the Republican Party. https://t.co/UZ5lGjtrnS

— Julián Castro (@JulianCastro) September 23, 2020

It might be tempting, and more than a little comforting, to dismiss Mr Trump's posturing as the pre-fight swaggering of second-rate boxers struggling to drum up pay-to-view business but that, like the belief that he could not be elected in 2016, is no longer possible. 

America's institutions, the protections its constitution offers its citizens and politics, the stability of its security and judicial systems, and most of all its commitment to democracy, are about to be tested in the most profound way. 

If any of those elements are as volatile as American society then tragedy beckons. Frighteningly, they are likely to reflect the society they spring from. 

The all but forgotten apprehension around the transfer of power in Ireland in 1932 is darkened by a simple question: How could America, despite its greatness and myriad faults, reach this volcanic moment?