Labour Party in positive mood at think-in despite 'flavour of the month' party surging ahead in polls

Party faithful unanimous in support for leader Ivana Bacik, who 'has not put a foot wrong'

Labour Party TDs, senators, and councillors at the Galway Bay Hotel for the party's pre-Dáil think-in. Picture: Labour Party/Flickr

As the Labour Party faithful gathered for its annual pre-Dáil think-in at the Galway Bay Hotel in Salthill, the party must have felt a sense of what might have been.

The two-day affair was being hosted by the city’s mayor, Labour councillor Helen Ogbu, who in May looked like she was on course to win the by-election caused by the departure of now-president Catherine Connolly.

In the end, it was not to be, and Fine Gael shirked the suggestion Government parties do not win elections; its candidate Sean Kyne secured the seat.

But it was deeper than that for Labour.

After the 2024 general election, it and the Social Democrats returned to Leinster House with 11 TDs apiece. With a higher percentage of first-preference votes, Labour had priority in the pecking order. Its leaders’ question slot was first. It had slightly more prominence.

But in the other May by-election in Dublin Central, Daniel Ennis won a seat for the Social Democrats, meaning it suddenly overtook the Labour Party.

And, despite the party not liking to talk about the Social Democrats and not liking to be compared to their purple comrades, Labour consistently is.

Partially because while Labour is languishing at 3% in the opinion polls, the Social Democrats are on 10%, according to the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll.

However, four-and-a-half years into her leadership, leader Ivana Bacik insisted she was not concerned.

“What we've seen is Labour performing really well in elections,” she said. “Polls consistently underestimate Labour's performance, and we've seen that over a succession of elections.”

Explicitly asked if she was worried about the Social Democrats, Ms Bacik said Labour was “in it for the long haul”.

She also denied the party needed to develop “sharper elbows”, saying they were not interested in “simply criticising for the sake of it”, or “simply trying to score political points”.

There is no one calling for Ms Bacik’s head. As one senior source said, she “has not put a foot wrong” and has delivered good election results, adding “no one wants to push her out”.

“She has steadied the party, but will she be able to build anymore?” they questioned.

They added if both parties were pitching for the same voters, more might start to lean towards “Brand Social Democrats”.

However, the mood among the Labour politicians in Galway was, for the most part, positive.

One member of the parliamentary party spoke of how they had noticed an increase in the membership of their local branch, with people of all ages deciding to join.

They played down the polls, saying there would always be a party that is “flavour of the month”, and things change.

Another TD said they have the same attitude as Taoiseach Micheál Martin, who consistently bemoans the obsessions with polls he suggests are always wide of the mark.

One Labour TD pointed out the polls in the lead-up to the last election had Fianna Fáil at low levels of support, only for it to “win” the election.

Labour will be hoping for a similar fate, but will just have to work that little bit harder if it is also to outperform its popularity rankings.

One TD admitted it could be hard for the party to cut through sometimes. They said while not everything was “perfect”, Ms Bacik had been one of the better leaders the party has had in recent years.

They said the party was continuing to build but needed to gain extra TDs if it was to get back into government when the next general election is held.

As part of that push, there will be an increased focus on how Labour would act in Government, with an emphasis on economics and the cost of living.

This will involve increased attention on the party’s economic ideas, with the party’s finance spokesperson Ged Nash being relied upon more.

There has already been a concerted effort to use him more during leaders' questions slots on Thursday, where he goes head-to-head with finance minister Simon Harris.

With the budget now just 4.5 weeks away, there will be increased emphasis on the cost of living, with Mr Nash unveiling his proposal to introduce a €100 “grocery gift voucher” for those in receipt of Children’s Allowance.

The Labour Party will be putting a lot of emphasis on its plans for how it would run the economy and the country.

It will have to do as much as it can to make sure it can drive this message home to voters who are torn between Labour and the Social Democrats.

Or else, there will be a lot more wondering what may have been for Labour.