AI can create better employment, although it may be a bumpy ride

New technologies generally create more jobs than they displace so let’s create the jobs that harness AI and other new technologies to deliver better value for all of us

AI will bring huge growth in demand for posts such as big data specialists and analysts, in areas such as cybersecurity and data warehousing, and for environmental and renewable energy engineers.

The recently released 1926 Census makes for fascinating reading. Among the jobs listed were lamplighter, town crier, bicycle messenger, horse-drawn cart driver, washerwoman, and water carrier. 

All important roles at that time but gradually replaced as technology emerged that provided those services more efficiently.

All forms of employment evolve as technology changes. Not so long ago, you wouldn’t be reading opinion pieces on your phone or tablet but only in print. 

Journalists would be expected to know shorthand as they gathered a story. 

They would have written it up on a typewriter and it would be passed to a skilled worker who would have laid out a bed of type on a printing press.

Generally, new technologies ultimately create far more jobs than they displace.

Think of the opportunities created by the invention of the railway, the car, the telephone, the mobile phone, or the personal computer. 

They resulted in some job losses but dramatic growth in employment in other fields. 

What we look to do as humans is to ‘add value’: we want to take the drudgery out of things that we do and we want to do them at scale and faster.

AI is transforming almost everything that we do and has the potential to ‘add value’ at a rate never seen before. 

There will be major levels of disruption in employment, and far beyond just the tech sector. The big challenge is the speed at which it is happening. 

This is a technology that can render certain roles obsolete or in need of major reinvention almost overnight.

Depending on which analysis of the jobs market you read, the projected employment figures vary. 

Many jobs at risk in Ireland 

The International Monetary Fund has warned that because of the make up of our economy, many jobs in Ireland are at risk. 

The World Economic Forum estimates that by 2030, there will be 92m jobs displaced by AI but 170m created. 

The OECD estimates that 27% of all jobs in developed economies are at high risk of automation in the future but the International Labour Organization sets out that generative AI is more likely to augment jobs than to destroy them.

Clerical, administrative and data entry roles are all identified as most at risk right now (and as the majority of such roles tend to be held by women, there is a gender disparity). 

But there is a huge growth in demand for posts such as big data specialists and analysts, in areas such as cybersecurity and data warehousing, and for environmental and renewable energy engineers.

Software engineers will not disappear. They will work with AI to deliver better products and services. 

The same will happen in many fields. Workers who use AI will replace workers who don’t.

There is a lot of hype around AI, as with any new technology. It is lazy to simply report that the technology is making lots of workers redundant. 

It is true that some roles are being replaced by automation. 

The decision of certain companies to spend lots of their cash on AI projects (in some cases, throwing good money after bad) has meant that they have cut back on recruitment or decided to let people go.

 But investment decisions cannot be conflated with “robots are taking our jobs”.

That said, if you are in a high risk area of employment, it is natural to be very worried.

As individuals, we like certainty and the familiar. 

Over the next few years, rapid technological change combined with an increasingly frightening geopolitical environment, will see huge upheaval in employment and how societies function. 

We are going to see significant redundancies but also the creation of new roles not yet contemplated. This will have workers, employers, our families, friends, and communities all on edge.

This has political consequences. Mainstream politicians need to show courage and imagination in leadership and set out strategies that will manage this social and economic upheaval, communicate honestly as to what is happening and ensure we adapt and innovate using AI, supporting innovation and reskilling while at the same time building effective guardrails to maintain safety and trust.

Public policy approach to new technology

Throughout history, the public policy approach to new technology can be divided into three avenues:

• The ‘ban it’ option, which as the Luddites discovered, will fail; 
• The ‘there is something in this but let’s see how others get on first’ approach, which inevitably leads to others leapfrogging ahead; 
• Then there is what I believe to be the course we should take: let’s embrace this, with the necessary safety measures, and go for it.

(I outlined this set of options in a speech recently where I was followed by a senior public servant who reminded me of the possible fourth approach — set up a review group. Though he made the remark in jest, I fear some government departments are deeply wedded to this course.)

Ireland and the European Union need to be ambitious in guiding and upskilling our citizens through this technological revolution. 

Effective and safe use of AI can make Europe competitive again and address many of the failings highlighted in the Draghi Report.

Further and higher education minister James Lawless’ development of the AIready.ie app as a simple introduction to AI, and the Government’s plans for a National Skills Observatory that will look in real time at the impact of AI on jobs and identify where we need to upskill, are positive steps.

I encounter businesses and organisations everyday, from libraries to recycling companies, who are looking at how they can use AI to achieve better outcomes and train staff in using new tech. 

I have been impressed by the Financial Services Union who have been proactive in pushing for upskilling and new opportunities for their members in a sector highly exposed to change as a result of AI use. 

Accountancy Ireland’s strategy sets out a comprehensive vision for a rapidly changing profession which some identify as facing huge AI displacement.

We need to be having these debates in every boardroom, staffroom, and classroom. 

Let’s create the jobs that harness AI and other new technologies to deliver better value for all of us. 

We are coming for the robots that will enable us to do that.

• Malcolm Byrne is the Fianna Fáil TD for Wicklow-Wexford