Louise Burne: Connolly is still the election favourite — but don’t write off Humphreys yet

Despite complaints about the repetitiveness of media debates, you can't rule out one of the candidates being dealt a fatal blow during Tuesday's 'Prime Time' showdown

Heather Humphreys and Catherine Connolly facing Cormac Ó hEadhra and Sarah McInerney an RTÉ Radio 1's 'Drivetime' in one of their many presidential election debates. Picture: PA

After weeks of campaigning, dull debates, and hundreds of handshakes, voters will cast their ballots on Friday, with Independent candidate Catherine Connolly or Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys vying to become the next Uachtarán na hÉireann following a presidential election that never really got off the ground.

But it certainly had its moments — who could forget the dramatic withdrawal of Fianna Fáil’s candidate Jim Gavin following a nearly two-decade-old rent dispute?

Apart from this, there has been little drama or excitement.

The polls suggest Ms Connolly has the election sealed up and that she should be packing her bags to make the move to the Phoenix Park.

However, senior sources in Fine Gael are refusing to admit the election is over just yet, despite Ms Humphreys being 18 points behind in polling.

She has not let this bother her. If anything, it appears to have lit a fire under her in recent debates and interviews.

Team Humphreys highlights endorsements 

In an interesting move, Fine Gael is at pains to point out the number of endorsements Ms Humphreys is securing. 

This weekend alone, former presidential candidate Seán Gallagher, Fianna Fáil chief whip Mary Butler, and former Fianna Fáil minister Máire Geoghegan-Quinn all said they were backing Ms Humphreys.

The one endorsement that could have the most impact on the whole campaign, however, is crooner Daniel O’Donnell. That is, if his fans were not already in Camp Humphreys.

Attacks continue on Catherine Connolly

While Fine Gael may have distanced itself from the Ivan Yates “smear the bejaysus out of her” faux pas, it still very much seems like this will be its tactic heading into the final days of the race. All weekend, ministers and TDs were questioning Ms Connolly’s role as a barrister representing banks during home repossessions.

Despite Ms Connolly’s repeated dodging of questions, the party’s main issue is that nothing is denting her campaign. As the mud-slinging continues, she is coming out of the fight cleaner and stronger every single time.

Her podcast appearances have appealed to younger audiences. Her social media campaign is second to none. Judging by the poll results, it is Ms Connolly’s to lose. But this does not mean that Ms Humphreys should be written off yet.

Turnout could be crucial 

Turnout is expected to be shamefully low. While Ms Connolly seems to have energised the youth, will they all vote on Friday? What if there is bad weather? Or, and most dangerously, what if Connolly voters think they don’t need to come out at all because Ms Connolly has already won? 

No one in Fine Gael believes that there will be an 18-point gap between Ms Humphreys and Ms Connolly when the votes are counted.

However, if they want to ensure this, Ms Humphreys needs to have a good final week and make sure she is meeting voters rather than attending Fine Gael rallies, like she did on Friday.

On Tuesday, the final debate of the campaign will be held. 

While there have been complaints about the repetitiveness of the questioning, you cannot rule out a candidate being dealt a fatal blow during the Prime Time showdown.

While miracles can happen, given the drab nature of the campaign so far, it is unlikely that we’re going to get a big-bang moment as the candidates embark on their final canvassing.

While it is all to play for, there certainly is a feeling that it is all but over.