Daniel McConnell: Government faces a full-on farmer revolt if emissions issue is pushed too far

Coalition ministers are juggling the percentages but new carbon emission limits are likely to be set at 25% 'at the very maximum'

Agriculture is by far the largest emitter of climate-altering greenhouse gases in Ireland, at 37.5% of the total. File picture@ PA

Will it be 22%? Will it be 30%? Well, in truth it is likely to be neither of those. I am talking about the “extremely tense” discussions issue going on between Green Party leader Eamon Ryan and Charlie McConalogue, the Agriculture Minister, on how much the agriculture sector must reduce its carbon emissions.

As part of Government’s Climate Action Plan, which committed to a 51% reduction in overall emissions by 2030 and to zero emissions by 2050, it was agreed that targets for each sector would be set.

Agriculture has been the trickiest one to agree and this decision is already several weeks delayed. 

There is now serious talk of the matter being kicked back until the autumn to allow time to thrash out the matter some more.

A sign of how tense things are is the wild variation in stories in the weekend media about what is likely.

Matters are being guarded pretty closely by Mr Ryan and Mr McConalogue, with solid briefings at a minimum.

But what is clear is that the Greens want as high as possible, while Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael want a number that is deliverable.

Some in Government are annoyed that this has become a binary fight of 22% versus 30%, saying the debate about percentage is distracting from how it’s all going to be delivered.

McConalogue and others in Government are adamant that farmers “need to be brought with us” while protecting the agri-food industry.

Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue. Picture: Fennells

They say a lot of work has been done on seeking to incentivise farmers on increasing afforestation, utilising technology and moving to alternatives, and decreasing fertiliser usage, as well as decreasing slaughter age in a bid to tackle emissions.

Intensive talks are continuing with the weekly meeting of the three Government leaders tonight, to decide whether it is ready to go to the Cabinet or not.

One senior Government source said they can’t see this landing above 24% or 25% at “the very maximum”, saying Mr McConalogue can’t go any further and expect to stay at his post.

There is an acceptance that more is needed but the political reality is that the government faces a full on farmer revolt if this matter is pushed too far.

There is fair criticism that not enough leadership has been shown by the farming lobby to ready members for what needs to be done.

As for the opposition, the no-stance policy from Sinn Féin is laughable, while the refusal of other rural TDs to accept the obvious is deeply cynical and done merely for their own electoral gain.