Tania Reut: Majority of Belarusians do not support Russia's war on Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the Kremlin in Moscow last month. Picture: Sergei Guneyev/Sputnik/Kremlin/AP
Belarus is Russia’s ally in the war against Ukraine. However, that does not mean that the people of Belarus support the war. As a journalist born and raised in Minsk, I understand why Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko obeys Russian President Vladimir Putin and what this means for the people of Belarus and Ukraine.
Although there has been no evidence that Belarusian troops have stepped on Ukrainian soil, Belarus, or rather its authoritarian leader Lukashenko, has supported the aggressor in many ways — most importantly by becoming the foothold for the Russian army.
If you look at the map, Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, is much closer to Belarus than it is to Russia. Using its territory for the large-scale invasion was a determining factor.
“If Belarus preserved its neutrality and didn’t offer its territory to Russia, this war wouldn’t have happened,” according to Pavel Matsukevich, a former Belarusian diplomat and the country’s chargé d'affaires in Switzerland from 2016-2020.
Yet, the war has happened. Multiple missiles have been launched from Belarus into Ukraine. Russian military aircraft are using local airfields, Russian troops are being treated in local hospitals, and Russian military equipment is serviced in Belarus.
So, there’s no doubt which side Belarus is on. However, it wasn’t always like that.
In 2014-2015 Lukashenko had a very different stance on the conflict in Ukraine. He didn’t go as far as condemning the Kremlin for annexing Crimea and instigating the war in Donbas — his dependence on Russia’s energy subsidies was too significant. However, Lukashenko tried to preserve some sort of neutrality.
At the time, Belarus did not recognise Crimea as Russian. Later, several rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine involving France and Germany were hosted in the capital. That is where the term the Minsk agreements come from.
To understand why it has changed, you must make a quick digression into the recent history of Belarus.
The landlocked country has a population of 9.5m and gained independence with the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. The happy days of democracy ended quickly.
Since 1994 the country has been controlled by the same man. Lukashenko has gradually destroyed the opposition and all democratic mechanisms, including the separation of powers, creating a puppet parliament and courts. Every presidential election had the same outcome, with Lukashenko “receiving” around 80% of the votes.
Despite many attempts by citizens to protest, his presidency hasn’t been seriously challenged — until 2020, when Lukashenko again claimed a landslide victory in the presidential election, despite the tremendous and very obvious public support for his opponent, former housewife Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Thousands of people took to the streets demanding Lukashenko’s resignation. After a few weeks at a loss, he stirred up every repressive tool available to him to crush the protests. Thousands went through detention and torture. As of March 16, there are 1,088 political prisoners in the country (including journalists, my colleagues).
In silencing the protests, Lukashenko benefited from Putin’s full financial and even military support, while the EU and the US put sanctions on Minsk and ostracised Lukashenko.
Saved by the Kremlin, he is now returning the 'favour'. At this point, whether or not to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine is not a decision for Lukashenko to make, according to Mr Matsukevich.
“It only means that, at the moment, Russia can manage without the involvement of Belarusian soldiers,” he said.
The ex-diplomat thinks it is also unlikely that Minsk is maintaining any independent diplomatic relations with Kyiv. Belarus is de-facto fully controlled by Russia and many in the country are worried that the whole existence of Belarus as an independent state is threatened.
After all, in Putin’s imperialistic paradigm it should not be a separate country, just as Ukraine should not.
People in Belarus do not want this war.
It is impossible to conduct a large-scale independent survey in a country as repressive as Belarus. However, according to the preliminary results by the London think tank Chatham House, only 3% of the population support sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine.
The nation’s will for resistance has been completely suppressed in recent years.
Nevertheless, there have been reports of some discontent in the army. According to Valery Sakhashchyk, a former commander of the 38th Airborne Brigade: “At least on the lower level, among soldiers, sergeants, and junior officers, no one wants to fight in Ukraine.”
Many see it as a suicide mission. Unlike the Ukrainian army, which has transformed and toughened up since 2014, Belarusian troops have never fought in a war.
“If they send you to Ukraine, surrender to Ukrainians,” a mother of a Belarusian soldier has told independent journalists. Both she and her son do not believe in this war.
Both were heavily affected by the European wars and the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Torn between powerful neighbours, shaping and defending their statehood and national identity wasn’t easy.
Both cautiously observed the growing threat of Putin’s Russia. Ukraine has always been a step ahead: more passionate about defending democracy, preserving its language, and moving towards Europe. However, as nations, we empathised with each other.
It’s fair to say that has changed.
While many understand that the government in Minsk is not democratically elected, some people in Ukraine say that Belarusians weren’t determined and courageous enough in overruling the dictator and, therefore, are also responsible for his current actions. This is arguably a fair claim from a nation which showed in 2004, 2014, and is showing in 2022 that it’s ready to fight for its freedom.
For many Belarusians standing by Ukrainians in this war, it means preserving themselves as a nation. More than 200 of them have formed a battalion to the Ukrainian defence against Russia. Many are also volunteering at the Ukraine-Polish border, helping to accommodate refugees and arranging humanitarian convoys into Ukraine.
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