Paul Hosford: Poll puts Connolly on top as presidential race heads into final week

The last seven days of this race will be crucial for both sides 

Before Mr Gavin's sensational departure from the race, there had been a school of thought that Ms Connolly would take the most first preferences, but that when Mr Gavin or Ms Humphreys would be eliminated, their transfers would lift the other above the Galway woman. Picture: Conor O'Mearain/PA

In football, the saying is "goals change games".

In politics, it's not quite "polls change games", but it's not a million miles off. For the teams of both Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys, Thursday's poll in The Irish Times will have caused conversations on how the last week will play out.

According to the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll, the Galway West TD is backed by 38% of respondents, putting her well ahead of Ms Humphreys on 20%, with just over a week remaining before voters head to the polls on October 24.

Former Dublin football manager Jim Gavin, who has since withdrawn from the race, is on 5%, while 18% of those surveyed said they remain undecided.

A further 12% of respondents said they do not plan to vote, and 6% indicated they will spoil their ballot.

More worrying for Ms Humphreys that the commanding lead her opponent has built is how it looks with spoilt votes, those who don't know and non voters stripped out: Catherine Connolly, 60%; Heather Humphreys, 32%; Jim Gavin, 8%.

Before Mr Gavin's sensational departure from the race, there had been a school of thought that Ms Connolly would take the most first preferences, but that when Mr Gavin or Ms Humphreys would be eliminated, their transfers would lift the other above the Galway woman. 

However, the Fianna Fáil candidate's decision to leave the race completely shifted the arithmetic. While Mr Gavin was polling at 12% in a Business Post poll last week, that poll began when he was still in the field. The Irish Times' version is the first after he announced his withdrawal and shows that while his support has dropped, it hasn't massively benefited Ms Humphreys.

For the last decade, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters have, largely, been pretty closely aligned. During last year's European elections, it was interesting to see piles of transfers going between the two parties. It was what public affairs consultant Gerard Howlin called a "1 + 1 = 2" strategy, but added that Fine Gael is now finding that "1 + 0 does not equal 2". 

With Fianna Fáilers not flocking to their candidate, Team Humphreys has eight days to work out who could be shifted from Ms Connolly's side to theirs and to appeal to the undecided.

After a campaign that effectively began in August, working out how a public servant of many years, ten of them at Cabinet, finds something new to attract voters is a big task. Ms Humphreys has pivoted in recent days to leaning on her pro-European credentials. 

This is part of an overall strategy to position the two candidates as polar opposites: Pitching Heather Humphreys as the steady hand centrist, the person who won't say anything critical of allies in Europe and beyond and who believes in the pro-EU, pro-enterprise approach of the Governments she sat in, and Catherine Connolly as the dangerous radical who endangers Ireland's economy and world position with each utterance.

The problem for the Humphreys campaign is that the public isn't buying that portrayal of Ms Connolly and a large cohort is instead attracted by her principles and willingness to say what she thinks. Whether Fine Gael sees this and changes tack in the final week will be interesting. 

For Ms Connolly, the poll makes the last week about one thing — turning out voters. As she said herself — polls don't win elections. The danger for the Connolly camp is that such a commanding lead can dampen turnout. But, make no mistake, this race is far from run and the last seven days will be crucial.