Niamh Griffin: The pandemic is over? Covid didn't get the message

Cases are creeping up again, surging in places, and new variants remain a threat

While the numbers in intensive care remain under 50, that's not the full story. By March 8, the number of patients receiving non-invasive ventilation outside of ICU went from 39 to 49. File Picture

When restrictions against Covid-19 were lifted, many people breathed a sigh of relief, took off masks, and tried to get back to normal. 

Unfortunately, the virus did not get the message.

Cases are creeping up again, surging in places. PCR test numbers have gone up by almost 40% in just two weeks.

GPs around the country are seeing a “concerning” rise in Covid patients, and increases in people presenting with other infections, a consequence of axing social distancing.

Dr Nuala O'Connor about to administer the first dose of vaccines making a final check with (left) nurse Vicki McManus. Picture: Larry Cummins

In Cork, Dr Nuala O’Connor said numbers have been growing for weeks.

This day last week, her practice saw 43 people with symptoms suggesting Covid-19 and another 40 phoned for advice on a Covid infection.

We have seen a big jump up again [nationally], and for the number of people actually declaring they have tested positive on an antigen — you could probably double that up for the people who do an antigen but are not registering it,” she said.

She is also seeing an increase in cases of flu, croup, and glandular fever.

Most patients are having mild Covid-19, she said, but she is also treating people who are more severely ill and who are sick for weeks, not days.

We seem to have forgotten some of our pandemic lessons already — people with symptoms are often attending work and schools.

Dr O’Connor, the Covid-19 lead with the Irish College of General Practitioners, has urged people to stay at home when they can.

“If you have symptoms of a respiratory infection, you should stay at home until 48 hours after you feel better,” she said. 

It doesn’t matter if you have Covid or flu or RSV — you are stopping its spread to other people.” 

It isn’t as easy to keep symptomatic children at home, as it was during the lockdowns, with many parents back in the workplace. She is seeing the impact of this with children in school uniforms coming for Covid appointments.

Another reason for the rising cases is over-reliance on a single negative result from antigen testing, leading to symptoms being ignored, said Dublin GP Dr Ray Walley.

Dr Ray Walley at a Covid-19 update press conference at the Department of Health. Picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

“Antigen tests are useless if you only do one," he said. 

"If you are symptomatic, you need to be doing it repeatedly, it's often the Day 3 one which shows the problem.” 

He is also seeing people who had a Covid-19 infection last year during the Delta wave and have now caught Omicron.

"We are seeing an increase in older people getting Covid, and this is mirrored in the UK,” he said.

Hospital figures have shot up to over 900, from 583 on February 25.

Dr Walley, a member of the national Covid-19 GP liaison committee, said about 50% of these cases were admitted for other reasons and identified as Covid patients on admission.

While the numbers in intensive care remain under 50, that's not the full story.

“On the eighth of March, it went from 39 to 49 patients receiving non-invasive ventilation outside of ICU,” he said.

Globally, a shocking study, published in The Lancet last week, focused on excess deaths above the reported 5.94m Covid deaths during all of 2020 and 2021.

"We estimate that 18.2m people died worldwide because of the Covid-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period,” the University of Washington study found.

It shows the global rate of excess deaths came to 123.3 per 100,000, but in 21 countries this hit 300 excess deaths per 100,000.

Numbers were worst across regions of south Asia, north Africa, the Middle East, and eastern Europe, although America is also highlighted.

The Bloomberg vaccine tracker shows low vaccination uptakes across these regions.

Ireland has given 213.3 vaccine doses per 100 people. However, across eastern Europe, this dips to 43.1 in Kyrgyzstan and 62.5 in Bulgaria.

Morocco has the highest rate in Africa at 149.9. This drops to 2.5 doses per 100 people in Chad and 0.9 in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Ireland’s high rate has given us an overly rosy view of the pandemic, said Dr Christine Kelly, an infectious diseases registrar and spokesperson for Doctors for Vaccine Equity.

“I think by not talking about the rest of the world, we are falsely reassuring ourselves, putting the blinkers on a little bit,” she said, adding that new variants remain a threat.

Vaccine supplies through the World Health Organization’s donor system are much improved, but still “unreliable”, she said.

“I am definitely still very worried,” she said. 

The vaccination rates are nowhere near where they should be, they are way off the WHO targets of having 70% vaccinated by September.

“I think most countries in the world won’t make that target.” 

Overall the message is the pandemic is not over yet. Immunocompromised and other vulnerable people are still wearing masks as the cases mount up.

That grand stretch in the evening could be what saves us from another hike in cases as more people hopefully head outdoors over the St Patrick’s Day bank holidays.