Simon Harris tying Fine Gael's fortunes to the person at the top

Overseeing the finance portfolio after the departure of Paschal Donohoe is something of a swing for the fences for Tánaiste Simon Harris

Simon Harris was the junior finance minister in the 18 months previously and, as party leader, has overseen the last two budgets. File Picture : Leah Farrell/© RollingNews.ie

Within minutes of word leaking that Paschal Donohoe would step down from Government, speculation turned to who might replace him.

The makeup of the Coalition means that the new finance minister had to come from the Fine Gael side of the house and, when eyes were cast around, only one person was thought to have had the experience necessary: The party’s leader and Tánaiste, Simon Harris.

A minister since 2016, he was the junior finance minister in the 18 months previously and, as party leader, has overseen the last two budgets.

Peter Burke is a qualified accountant and widely thought of as a good minister for enterprise, but he is only at Cabinet for 18 months.

Patrick O’Donovan is in a similar situation, while Martin Heydon is only at the Cabinet table since January.

Helen McEntee’s time in the Department of Justice had seen her become a lightning rod for criticism from Fianna Fáil in last year’s election campaign, and the move to the education portfolio was something she is understood to have wanted.

The idea of putting a junior minister into a position held by one of the best known politicians in the country didn’t seem logical or feasible, and so it was the party leader.

Within Fine Gael, there was surprise, but not shock, at Mr Donohoe’s decision. Some eyebrows were raised by the reshuffle, as one source said: “The more you thought about it, the more sense it made.”

Closer budget analysis

Within Fine Gael’s benches, the move signifies a number of things.

Firstly, how new the parliamentary party is — 22 of its now 37 number were elected to the Dáil for the first time just a year ago. Secondly, Mr Harris’s desire to oversee spending at a closer level. Thirdly, Mr Harris taking on responsibility for just about everything Fine Gael does in the short- to medium-term.

Sources said that, in recent parliamentary party meetings, the Tánaiste has espoused the need for “brave decisions” in the coming years if the promises and priorities laid out in the programme for government are to be met.

Now, they said, he would be solely responsible for those decisions from a Fine Gael perspective.

“You can say what you like,” one senior source said “but he’s taking on a lot of responsibility and really putting his career out there, banking on delivery in the next two years.”

Mr Harris will be minister for finance until the changeover in November 2027, at which point he will become taoiseach.

In that case, it would have probably been easier for him to have a buffer between himself and whatever financial decisions need to be made between now and then.

Part of the finance minister’s utility to a party leader is often seen as being the bad cop, the one willing to shoot down ideas or spending requests.

“Simon can be agreeable in meetings with him,” one TD says.

“But when it went to Paschal, it might be shot down.

He’ll have to balance those two things. But he’s in a good position because it’s as far from the budget as you can really get, so he doesn’t have to deal with the budget process just yet

Among the Fine Gael backbenches, the move has gone down extremely well.

While TDs are lamenting the loss of Mr Donohoe, who one called “the glue of the party”, there is a belief that Mr Harris was the most sensible choice for Fine Gael.

Cork North East TD Noel McCarthy said the move “was the most straightforward and logical” choice, and said Mr Harris “has a lot of experience” to do the job.

Mr McCarthy said the Tánaiste was “always approachable”, but that his focus on finance would make him more attuned to “bread and butter” cost-of-living issues.

Laois TD Willie Aird said Mr Harris is the “most suitable person” for the job, while another TD said the “phenomenally intelligent” Mr Harris would be “well able” for the job.

However, others worry that Mr Harris’s attention could be taken away from party matters if and when the economic context shifts.

“It’s hard to be party leader and anything else,” one parliamentary party member says.

“But being over finance, which is incredibly detailed and busy, won’t exactly leave time for much else.”

Health minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill has only been in Cabinet since January, but is a former junior finance minister herself. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins

Others worry that Mr Harris will have to be more detail-oriented and less public-facing in his new role, saying that Mr Donohoe was not as visible as the Tánaiste.

Of those Cabinet members mentioned above, one who might have been moved into the role is Jennifer Carroll MacNeill.

The health minister has only been in Cabinet since January, but is a former junior finance minister herself. She has also been clear in the past that she would like to lead Fine Gael.

There are some who believe that not elevating her to finance or junior minister Neale Richmond to Cabinet was as much about blocking the path of potential challengers as it was about experience, though many supporters of Mr Harris reject this. In Fianna Fáil, there are some who believe that the move could stymie Mr Harris.

“If he has to take responsibility for everything, and loses the ability to comment on things that are outside his department, he runs the risk of being just another minister.”

'Knowing the job inside and out'

Mr Donohoe, who starts his new job as managing director of the World Bank on Monday, told RTÉ that the Tánaiste will excel in the role.

“He already knows the role so well. He was a minister for state in the Department of Finance and then, critically, he was taoiseach and Tánaiste in working with me on two budgets.

“He chaired the Cabinet subcommittee on the economy and he chaired the trade council. He is as close as possible to knowing this job inside out without having done it.”

Taking on the role is something of a swing for the fences from Mr Harris, and his stewardship of the Irish economy over the next two years has the potential to elevate him to a level of seriousness and substance which his detractors say he lacks. But it could swing the other way.

By making himself essentially the unparalleled top person in the party, he is essentially tying Fine Gael’s fortunes to himself.

This makes the next 24 months the making or breaking of Simon Harris.