No emigration safety valve for pandemic generation, as recovery plan changes welfare payments

Despite a huge welfare bill at present, the government foresee no return to long dole queues after the pandemic, with a plan to have 2.5 million people in work by 2024.

Recession, a housing crisis, young people and vulnerable groups disproportionately affected, people musing about emigrating - haven't we been here before?

Well, yes and no. The launch of the government's Economic Recovery Plan is another document filled with aspirations, some of which was already given an airing in last July's jobs stimulus, and the economic impact of the pandemic may prove to be a different type of journey than the usual, years-long slog from a 'normal' recession. So maybe we will be back to normal soon, and if so, the real question should be: is 'normal' good enough?

The plan is anchored around a successful vaccination programme and more than €3.5bn in spending supports and just under €1bn under the EU's Recovery and Resilience Fund, with Taoiseach Micheal Martin saying this will drive a jobs-led economy. The plan is to have 2.5 million people in work by 2024, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. 

That's a laudable target, but the type of jobs to be provided will also come under scrutiny, particularly as just this week a joint report from the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission (IHREC) and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) outlined how things were far from perfect before the pandemic arrived. Using baseline data up to 2019 it found that Ireland’s young workers were six times more likely to be on temporary contracts than those over 25. It also highlighted how the employment rate for people with disabilities, at 41%, was 32 percentage points below the national average, with high unemployment rates also noted among Black and Muslim respondents and, most acutely, among Irish Travellers. 

Given the ongoing housing and rental crisis, maybe the travails of younger citizens are best summed up by a meme doing the rounds recently, comparing 'my parents in their 30s': 'we should probably consider an extension if we're gonna have a fourth child', complete with picture of a house - and 'me in my 30s': 'I'll never financially recover from this purchase', complete with picture of a JustEat sticker.

Yet for all the talk of emigration - described by co-author of the ESRI report, Prof Frances McGinnity, as a "safety valve" during previous recessions - where do you go in a global pandemic? 

And if the new Economic Recovery Plan is to be credible, it must avoid the kind of brain-drain that has befallen the country during previous rough times.

There is a lot in the plan that is both worthy and a little nebulous. For example: research being undertaken on the best approach to piloting a Universal Basic Income, via the Low Pay Commission, with recommendations in early 2022; more research involving the Low Pat Commission, this time examining how best a living wage could be introduced in Ireland, to be completed before the end of the year; and enactment by the end of this year of the General Scheme of a Bill on the introduction of Statutory Sick Pay, following a public consultation. The Economic Recovery Plan reaffirms the commitment to implementing the Roadmap for Social Inclusion and its stated target of reducing consistent poverty to 2% or less by 2025.

Pandemic payments

However, in the short term, the focus will be on those in receipt of pandemic payments. The Pandemic Unemployment Payment will continue at its current level until September, before being phased out in stages up to next February, with an earlier timeframe for students, while the Wage Subsidy Scheme will be extended until the end of the year and businesses can apply for enhanced reopening payments.

Bríd O’Brien, INOU Head of Policy & Media, sums it up by saying if - if - we are finally emerging from a health crisis, with the heightened dangers of the virus behind us, then the timeframe for the payments may be sufficient if the economy rebounds rapidly from the dents of the past 16 months. Research before plans before implementation can seem like kicking things into the long grass, she says. 

A novel aspect to the payments support structure was raised by Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection, Heather Humphreys, who said she wanted to look at the possibility of introducing a pay-related benefit to replace the jobseekers' allowance for people who face sudden job loss. It would mean a payment capped at a certain rate for a limited period of time to guard against a cliff-edge reduction in income for anyone who lost their job.

This raised some eyebrows but Bríd O'Brien takes the view that this is effectively a reinstatement of the policy that existed until the early Nineties, and on that basis, it is to be welcomed.

However, not all businesses will reopen. 

Some areas, particularly rural areas, will be more dependent on inward tourism, which may not return until next year. And the pandemic has also highlighted the digital divide, between those who can work from home or online, and those who can't. The full impact of the pandemic has yet to be seen and

Bríd O'Brien has concerns that our welfare system hasn't always been focussed on what is best for the person it is trying to help, and is rather focussed more on 'get a job - any job'.

Sean Lemass loved the quote "A rising tide lifts all boats." The current Taoiseach will have to hope that if we're all in this together, then we stay that way even as we sail into calmer waters.