Fianna Fáil rumblings indicate Micheál Martin's days as Taoiseach are numbered
Taoiseach Micheal Martin intends to lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election. Picture: Sasko Lazarov/RollingNews.ie
At a briefing for political correspondents just before Christmas, Taoiseach Micheál Martin was asked what is and has been a standard question at these affairs.
A reporter asked him whether he intends leading Fianna Fáil into the next general election.
Since these Christmas briefings began over a decade ago, every Taoiseach from Brian Cowen to Enda Kenny to Leo Varadkar have been asked the same question.
Mr Martin’s response was telling.
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Rather than just seeing it as the standard question asked of all leaders, Mr Martin detected the landmine in it being asked and sought to deflect.
The Taoiseach’s antennae were correct to be alert as the truth of the matter is that his position of leader has become an open source of discussion among his disillusioned parliamentary party.
Languishing at record low opinion poll ratings, a difficult first six months in office during which two ministers have resigned and persistent criticism of Mr Martin’s aloofness from his troops have all combined to serious talk going on about when he will depart from office.
The has canvassed more than 20 members of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, including ministers and junior ministers as to Mr Martin’s performance and his position and the news for the leader is not good.
Many Fianna Fáil TDs are concerned about a snap election next year amid consistent poor polling and a perceived "loss of identity" in the coalition and more pertinently, the loss of their coveted Dáil seats.
Since the general election in February, the highest Fianna Fáil has polled is 19%, the lowest at just 11% as the party continues to see support among young people and in Dublin decrease.
Veteran TD Éamon Ó Cuív says that the party are running "consistently behind" Fine Gael and Sinn Féin and need to consider how they manage the narrative. More worrying, is that Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are significantly ahead.
"There is a political narrative of credibility, which the next election could be fought on if this continues, A Fine Gael- or Sinn Féin-led government both will say they won't go in with each other after that is a matter for Fianna Fáil,” he said.
"The circumstances we're in, if you want to change the narrative we have to think long and hard about where we position ourselves, Micheál Martin presumes he will overtake one of them to become second biggest party but that remains to be seen,” he added.
Clare TD Cathal Crowe says: "All parliamentary parties like to say that polls don't matter but of course we do look at them. We've seen a number of polls from 19 to 11%, I'd like to say they don't bother me but they do, all elected reps consider polls.
"We get a boost as a party to see you're performing well, and likewise it makes us look inward."
Cork North Central TD Padraig O'Sullivan says he feels "there's time to pull this around but undoubtedly things are difficult at present, how well we deal with Covid, Brexit, housing, and health will determine how well or poor we perform next time".
Behind closed doors, the criticism of Mr Martin from his own colleagues has been visceral.
The recent mishandling of the Seamus Woulfe affair, the mother and baby homes, and paying student nurses brought stinging criticism from across the party.
Highlighting how bad things had become, Kilkenny TD John McGuinness "complimented the Cabinet on its consistency on making a balls of things every week".
The Dáil’s youngest TD, Cork East’s James O’Connor, said the damage to Fiann Fáil will be lasting from the student nurses issue. "We'll be slaughtered in a general election. Our social media presence is appalling," he said.
Persistent critics like Marc MacSharry have repeatedly accused the Taoiseach and his team of being outgunned and outsmarted by Mr Varadkar.
Mr MacSharry recently branded his leader’s performance “a disgrace”, saying it is the cause of the party’s poor poll ratings.
One TD said Mr MacSharry was "a little harsh, but not a million miles off".
Dublin South West TD John Lahart said people are “angry at the party”, while Dublin North West TD Paul McAuliffe and Senator Mary Fitzpatrick were among many voices complaining about the need for better communications.
"Fine Gael are outplaying us," says one Fianna Fáil TD. "Leo does something wrong while we were in opposition and we end up shouting and roaring at a parliamentary party meeting about it."
A number of TDs have confirmed that the party as a whole is concerned about the polls, many pointing out that the pro-government swing gained by Fine Gael has not lent itself to Fianna Fáil with Mr Martin as Taoiseach.
"People are worried about the existence of Fianna Fáil after the next election. If we perform as we have in the polls, we'll only get 14 seats of so, no Fianna Fáil TD would be elected in Dublin,” said one TD.
There have been rumblings within the party about a leadership challenge for months, with one TD pointing out that Mr Martin "moved on Brian Cowen when we were a lot higher than 11%".
"Fianna Fáil is finished if Micheál Martin remains beyond next summer, to be honest, I think it’s too late in any event. He has his qualities but suitable to an era long since gone. We live in a sound bite world of communications and he can’t compete,” said one TD.
"Literally and metaphorically speaking, we are an analogue party in a digital age.
As for his position, only three of those asked said they would be happy to see him lead the party into the next election, while 12 spoken to said they think he should step down when Mr Varadkar swaps back into the Taoiseach’s job in 2022.
It is clear, a sizeable majority of his colleagues do not see or want him to lead the party into the next general election.
Offaly TD and former agriculture minister Barry Cowen’s interview in which he said the Taoiseach should not lead Fianna Fáil into the next election accurately reflect the views of most of the parliamentary party.
Meanwhile, Dublin TD Jim O'Callaghan has done little to dispel the notion that he would be tipped for the top job in any event of a challenge after rejecting a seat at the Cabinet table and speaking out against government policy in public.
Many within the party believe Mr O'Callaghan is the most likely challenger to Mr Martin, though Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien is also considered a contender.
"Jim has the potential to pull the party together and is willing to put in the hard yards and Darragh is in a very important ministry for us. Unless somebody emerges soon, it will likely be between those two."
At the same pre-Christmas briefing, Mr Martin said he is “not contemplating” any Cabinet reshuffle, but he could, should matters not improve, easily find himself shuffled out against his wishes.
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