Q&A: Motion of no-confidence in Leo Varadkar explained

Leo Varadkar is set to face a motion of no confidence in his position as Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

On Tuesday evening, for the second time in a week, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar will face the Dáil over his leaking of a confidential document to a GP's union.

Having faced two hours of detailed cross-examination from across the chamber last Tuesday, Mr Varadkar will now face a motion of no confidence in his position as Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

What is the controversy about?

At its core, it comes down to whether you believe Mr Varadkar leaked a document to a friend or to the head of a union whose support he was trying to garner. 

The broad outline of a GP pay agreement was reached on April 5 2019, with the Irish Medical Organisation announcing a €210m deal.

However, the National Association of General Practitioners (NAGP) was not involved in GP contract talks and did not have the document. 

Mr Varadkar supplied it to Dr Maitiu O Tuathail, then President of the union and a friend of the then-Taoiseach. Mr Varadkar says that he was simply trying to get wide GP support for the deal.

Leo Varadkar leaving Dublin Castle after attending a Cabinet meeting earlier this month. Picture: Niall Carson/PA Wire

The opposition, however, does not buy that explanation, with Pearse Doherty saying: "This is insiders. This is old boys' club. This is not something that one just apologises for and tries to make excuses that this was a part of an ongoing engagement."

The party says that the motion is necessary to keep faith in the accountability of the Dáil.

When does it take place?

It is scheduled to take place at 6.39pm in the Dáil, with two hours allowed for the debate and vote.

How are the parties going to vote?

With Sinn Féin tabling the motion, its TDs will vote in favour. They will be joined by the Labour Party and the Social Democrats, with Soc Dems co-leader Catherine Murphy saying: “The reality of it is that there was the leaking of a confidential document with confidential written on every single solitary page. That is not only not the standard to be set by a government, it is not a lawful way to proceed."

Within the coalition, there is very little desire from Fianna Fáil or the Greens to throw Mr Varadkar to the wolves. Sources in those parties have downplayed if not the severity, then the wider impact of the story.

Catherine Murphy during a press briefing by the Social Democrats at Leinster House. File picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

There is general acceptance within all three coalition parties that Mr Varadkar has explained himself to their satisfaction.

Will the Tánaiste survive?

The short answer is: yes. 

Barring a dramatic shift from a coalition partner, Mr Varadkar will still be Tánaiste. The longer answer is that while Mr Varadkar will almost certainly retain his position, it is not yet known what damage has been done to his reputation by this affair.

The controversy does not seem to have landed with the public in the way that some others have and is seen by many within Mr Varadkar's party as an attempt to damage his personal brand. 

Indeed, no Fine Gael TD has sounded any real criticism of the Tánaiste, beyond accepting that his actions were wrong. Within Fianna Fáil, there is hope that the affair chastens Mr Varadkar and makes him "more appreciative of the partnership" that is coalition.