Cianan Brennan: We may be changing our behaviour - but the virus isn't

Members of the public wearing face masks on Grafton Street in Dublin's City Centre.

As with all natural phenomena, the trends that have come with the coronavirus pandemic vary from the apparently simple to the more complex.

On the face of it, Covid-19 is a highly infectious disease which spiked alarmingly when introduced to the community in Ireland, only to be suppressed reasonably effectively when a full national lockdown was applied for two months.

However, now that the disease is experiencing a resurgence, not all of the factors which typified the first wave are to the fore this time around.

There are two major differences - the average age of new cases, which in the early months of the pandemic had hovered around the 50 mark, has now fallen below 45 in recent weeks, and the rate of both hospitalisations and deaths have fallen dramatically.

These changes are being replicated in other locations around the world, notably in US states like Florida, and in European countries like Switzerland and Spain. 

Despite this, the virus has not changed appreciably and remains as dangerous and as infectious as it did when it first arrived. 

So what is causing the changes? 

It's most likely a result of human behaviour rather than any intrinsic alteration in the virus itself. 

That results from three things, as per viral tracker Dr Emma Hodcroft, who posted her theory on the trends to social media: more and more effective testing, older generations becoming increasingly cautious, and younger generations becoming increasingly careless.

This is borne out by a quick comparison of stats from the height of the initial surge and the current date. 

On April 3, 22 Irish deaths from Covid-19 were notified, along with 424 cases. The median age for reported deaths in Ireland at that time from the virus was 82. 

On August 15, 200 cases were confirmed. Just under 70% of them were in people aged under 45. No new deaths were reported.

The idea of human behaviour changing fundamentally over the past six months is one endorsed by Professor Anthony Staines of DCU’s school of community health.

“The first people to be tested were older people. At the time we had no idea that a virus could cause a disturbance in smell or taste. That’s a brand new thing,” he said. 

Where there is an epidemic, it doesn’t matter what the Government says, people will change their behaviour anyway.

His final pronouncement on what is happening is less encouraging.

“What I suspect we’re seeing is time-lags. The gap from infection to death was already long, and now it’s much longer than it even used to be because we’re much better at treating this,” Professor Staines said.

“The concern and the fear is that it’s bouncing back. There are some signs already that it’s spreading back to the older population. 

"We’re definitely in a far worse place than we were in June. 

"By the nature of this thing it’ll be a number of weeks before people start to die from it again.”