Garda industrial action: Government must avoid doomsday scenario

This much seems clear: frontline gardaí won’t back down.

If they want to maintain any credibility, they can’t.

Not now, not after throwing down the gauntlet at their conference on Wednesday.

A work to rule, or a “blue flu” was expected — but a full-blown strike, on four days, certainly wasn’t.

The Government will have to give ground.

How much ground is not clear, but significant enough to risk sending that feared domino off in all directions.

It’s either that or the Government calls the bluff of those who comprise the thin blue line.

That would be a gamble that even a single-party Government with an overwhelming majority would be reluctant to do.

The bluff of Luas drivers was called, then Dublin Bus drivers. That didn’t work.

And this is not public transport. This is public safety. And national security.

Will the Tánaiste, or the Taoiseach, or even Paschal Donohoe be willing to risk an outrage or a tragedy come November 4?

Such as a murder, or murders by drug cartels; a spate of vicious burglaries on elderly farmers or delayed responses to a glut of 999 calls. Or, it being a Friday, drunken disorder.

A range of Garda sources spoken to yesterday are in no doubt as to the seriousness of what lies ahead — just under five weeks to be exact — and the resolve of frontline gardaí.

It’s not just that gardaí suffered cuts, and are not getting them reversed sufficiently, it’s the fact that they were not directly part of the negotiations that came up with the cuts in the first place.

Not being a trade union means they are essentially handed with a fait accompli.

On top of that, they had to work 30 free extra hours last year.

All of this came against a background of assaults on various fronts: on the staffing levels of the organisation (axed by 2,000); on the reputation of members from external bodies; and, literally, in widespread verbal abuse and physical attacks.

In recent years, two members of the GRA, Adrian Donohoe and Tony Golden, were murdered in the course of their duties, each leaving behind young children.

The respect granted to members got to such a low level that a new entrant to the service now starts on a salary of around €23,000.

Not only that but, because the GRA refused to accept the Lansdowne Road Agreement, these probationers were denied the €4,000 a year rent allowance — at a time when a couple could pay €1,300 a month for a place to live in Dublin

A senior garda yesterday said that young gardaí could now qualify for supplementary rent allowance.

“If you do that to gardaí, you open the door to corruption, like abroad,” he said.

If the strike on November 4 comes to pass, senior Garda sources believe they should be able to provide a “skeleton” service on the day — if sergeants and inspectors work.

Even then, there will be consequences.

It will be a “fire brigade service”, sources said. Some or many Garda stations may have to close. Patrols will be severely curtailed, as will beats on the street.

The priority will be responding to 999 calls and having armed units on duty in case organised crime seizes an opportunity — such as the Kinahan cartel continuing their extermination of the Hutch gang and family, with the risk this poses to the wider community.

Currently, significant staffing and overtime resources are going into patrolling key areas to prevent and disrupt attempted feud attacks.

“The absence of those patrols would be a huge danger, no doubt about it,” said one source. “We are worried for the safety of people on both sides and the public.”

The GRA has said that it expects to be involved in discussions with the commissioner on providing emergency cover, once she has come up with a contingency plan.

What would tip the balance towards a full-blown policing crisis is if the AGSI goes out with GRA.

“If they go out too it would be a nightmare scenario,” said one senior source.

Some AGSI sources remember the blue flu of May 1998, when they didn’t support their colleagues.

“There is a general feeling we let them down previously,” said one experienced association source, “and that we shouldn’t do that again.”