Ratings collapse a disaster of Fine Gael’s own making

Finally, it’s game on in general election 2016.

An incredibly dull campaign has been kicked into life by the latest (almost daily) Red C opinion poll for today’s Irish Sun, which shows Fine Gael down to 26%.

There were denials from senior ministers that the poll has ignited widespread “panic” within the party, but it most surely has many of them sweating.

Their expected re-election, which appeared assured, now seems to be slipping away from them.

On the surface of it, you could argue a 2 point drop is not the end of the world, but for a party that was on 31% just 10 days ago in a poll in the Sunday Business Post, it is a disaster.

And it is a disaster of Fine Gael’s own making.

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A shambolic start to the campaign, typified by Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s gaffe about the electorate being too stupid to understand “jargon” , has now become crisis of confidence for the party that has for so long seemed destined to lead the next administration.

Then there was the week-long confusion around the so-called fiscal space and again Fine Gael made a mess on an issue they have been rock solid on — the economy.

Finance Minister Michael Noonan’s proposal to abolish the universal social charge has also not gone down well as expected, with him having to counter accusations of being reckless with the public finances. In an instant, the image of him being the wise old hand at the till has been undermined.

Then, Fine Gael the so-called party of law and order, were forced onto the back foot over the closure of garda stations and resources in the wake of the double gangland murder in Dublin.

Since then, we have had two television debates, in which Kenny has failed to sparkle, but in which he didn’t foul up either.

But for a party selling the message of recovery, it is clear it is not working and the people are not buying it.

Whether they have made up their mind on Kenny and his deficiencies, or whether they are seeing a Fine Gael which is arrogant and out of touch, three successive drops in the polls at this stage in an election campaign is very worrying.

We have heard a lot about parties needing to build momentum in campaigns. Well, Fine Gael has momentum, it’s just going in the wrong direction.

At 26%, Fine Gael is now a full 10 points shy on the vote it took at that historic election in 2011 and they are a long way shy of their desired target of 60 seats.

At that last election, Fine Gael and Labour took power with 113 seats.

Now we find ourselves in a position whereby the two parties by themselves would not have enough to retain power after the election. That is simply incredible.

Such a slump would normally be the basis of a heave, and we could see movement in both parties should these numbers materialise.

Even before the poll was taken, former Fine Gael director of elections Frank Flannery gave voice to the concerns within the party as to the stuttering campaign.

Frank Flannery

Flannery questioned where the “young leaders” of Fine Gael are in the election campaign, as he criticised the party for being “complacent” in trying to get its message across to voters.

He questioned why young Fine Gael ministers, such as Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney, were not playing a “dominant role” in the campaign as opposed to the “ghosts of old battles and old wars”.

The ex-party strategist also told Newstalk’s Lunchtime show that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil might have to go into government together for “the national interest” — despite both party leaders denying they would.

“There are lots of dynamic young politicians in Dáil Éireann but none of them are represented in the leadership we’re being presented in this election.”

“Where is Leo Varadkar, where is Simon Coveney, where is the young leadership of the party? Why aren’t they playing a dominant role in this debate, representing the new Ireland and the new generation that’s coming up?”

While there is an element of lingering bitterness in Flannery’s comments, given his forced exit from the party, there is no questioning of the merits of his arguments.

With nine days left in this campaign before voters go to the polls, there is still time for the party to turn it around. Party sources last night have said they are now likely to abandon the daily press conferences in favour of more in-depth engagement with the media in a bid to stop the rot.

But ultimately, we are now genuinely in a space where forming a government becomes impossible and a second election could be necessary.

Fine Gael will have no one to blame for that imbroglio but themselves.

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