New party in a shifting landscape
She has shown herself in the past to be a conviction politician. Announcing #rebootireland in Dublin’s Marker Hotel, the former European affairs minister and Fine Gael TD stepped up to the plate.
Self-belief and ambition certainly play their part in politics. Creighton is especially blessed in the self-belief department, but swapped a prized job in government for an entirely uncertain future. She did so on an issue of principle. For this she should be respected.
Her uncertain future will be played on a crowded field. Successfully founding a new political party requires more than a single issue or a single politician. The narrow background to yesterday’s event is the dysfunction of her relationship with Enda Kenny when he was leader of the opposition; his abandonment of a promised agenda for radical political reform in government; and, ultimately, the issue of abortion.
The wider context is an unprecedented lack of public confidence in and support for the established political-party infrastructure in Ireland.
Momentarily it seemed that the general election of 2011 was the political earthquake, caused by our economic meltdown.
The electorate voted for political change on a scale equalling the third largest turnover of parliamentary seats in any western democracy since the Second World War.
It is clear now that far from being the main event, the last general election was likely the precursor of greater change still. It is in this fast-moving vortex that Creighton moved yesterday.
Comparisons will likely be made with the launch of the Progressive Democrats on December 21, 1985. That launch was also timed to coincide with the Christmas break and accompanying media lull — all the better to give the new party a better run. That is about where the comparison ends though.
Then the superstructure of Irish politics was fully intact. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael between them had secured over 84% of the vote in the previous general election. Add in Labour’s November 1982 tally of 9% and the so-called establishment parties enjoyed more than 93% of the vote. It was a different world. Opinion polls put those three parties together at less than 50%.
The PDs set out to “break the mould” of Irish politics. Yesterday, Creighton stepped out onto a political stage where the mould is already in smithereens. It is unquestionable that there will be further, probably irreversible change at the next election.
In part, yesterday’s announcement was about the tactical positioning of her brand vis-à-vis directly competing options.
The coming critical weeks will determine if others both outside politics and within, gather with her to make #rebootireland the basis for a credible new party.
In the meantime, Shane Ross, who will not be joining her, is attempting to gather support for his alliance of independents. This is all as much to do with branding as any issue of principle. The very idea of the political party is badly damaged in the public mind.
Fianna Fáil and the PDs are blamed for the economic collapse. The parties who voted in at the last general election in 2011, Fine Gael and Labour, are blamed for delivering far more continuity than change. In fact, their programme for government, minus their own political reform agenda which they abandoned, is essentially the one their predecessors negotiated with the troika.
The general election of 2011, with its enormous change in personnel but minimal change in policy, profoundly damaged the party concept in the public mind.
The ‘independent’ label, by contrast, has allure, and is garnering unprecedented support in opinion polls. That’s why Ross has no intention of associating with any ‘party’. It is also why the remaining windows of opportunity for Creighton to make a move are rapidly closing.
Yesterday had something of the feel of needing to make a move — any move — before the moment finally passed. Granted it was not the main event, but in certain respects it was an unprepossessing one.
The choice, if in fact there was much choice, of Eddie Hobbs to sit beside her is puzzling, to put it mildly. If we are being asked to make important choices for our future, he is not where I would choose to place mine.
As for the political substance, we were told that is for another day.
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