Sinn Féin set to sweep up the votes
“They’ve a good story for everyone they meet,” says one TD. “If you are in third level, they’ll slash your fees. If you’re on social welfare, they’ll pay you more. And the only time they can be properly questioned on that is when they’re in Government.”
If the expected results of this weekend’s elections are anything to go by, the party is on an unstoppable march to reach such a destiny. But many will be watching closely as to whether this support holds when it comes under scrutiny or if it is merely riding the current wave of voter dissatisfaction sweeping across Europe.
Sinn Féin’s campaign slogan, “make the change”, is potent in a climate defined by feelings of being cheated and ignored by traditional political parties. Its message is distinctive: It is anti-water charges, anti-property tax, anti-austerity, and above all else, anti-establishment.
“If we look across the EU, there is a pattern of considerable unease, a deep distrust and even hatred of the main political parties and the political system,” says Dr Theresa Reidy, a political scientist at University College Cork. “Sinn Féin would fit into that broader phenomenon.”
The party resents the analysis that its success is only down to an anti-establishment vote, arguing that people are simply opting for a fairer way. While it might be benefiting from a wave of voter dissatisfaction, its success has been building for some time, according to Dr Adrian Kavanagh of NUI Maynooth. He traces the party’s growth to the victory of Pearse Doherty in the Donegal South West by-election of November 2010. The “Doherty drive” fed into a strong result in the general election a few months later, Dr Kavanagh says.
“If you look at the polls before those by-elections, the Gilmore gale was going full blast, Sinn Féin were doing OK but were not making any major in roads,” he says. “But after that you see a big swing towards Sinn Féin. While Fianna Fáil were losing support, Sinn Féin began picking up a lot of that.”
That brought the party to 10% support in the 2011 general election, in which it took 14 Dáil seats — polls suggest its vote has since risen to 20%.
Dr Kavanagh believes there has been a “domino effect” of the working class vote. “Its major rivals would have traditionally been Fianna Fáil and Labour. During Bertie’s time, Fianna Fáil was strongest in terms of winning the urban working-class vote,” he says. When Fianna Fáil’s working-class support collapsed, it was mostly picked up by Labour. Now Sinn Féin is best placed to sweep up the votes of that demographic.
“The Socialists, the People Before Profit, and other left-wing groups don’t have the level of organisation to compete for that vote,” Dr Kavanagh says.
SINN Féin strategists say the party has “nowhere near the capacity of bigger parties” and therefore cannot capitalise on its support levels. If it could stand more candidates, it would get far more seats, they argue.
This however, has given it other advantages. “They have been quite careful in their candidate selection and put a lot of thought into picking young people, with the right geographical balance, in a way that is not possible for other parties,” says Dr Reidy.
“Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Labour all have long-standing organisational or branch structures which often restricts them in their choice of candidates,” she says. “Sinn Féin is in new territory and is picking candidates to suit a wider agenda.”
This has allowed the party to develop a vital ingredient to its current success: Strong Dáil performers. TDs from other parties disdain what they see as Sinn Féin’s populist rhetoric. But its most prominent public faces, such as Mary Lou McDonald, have been connecting with people and speaking their language on issues they care about in a way that other parties can’t afford to.
While this might be a big asset when it comes to the next general election, there is also a feeling among mainstream political parties that when Sinn Féin’s policies come under more scrutiny, voters’ minds will become more focused. These elections are not about picking the next government. When people are looking at candidates on the lamp posts, they are not evaluating if Gerry Adams or Pearse Doherty would be good ministers.
“If people are dissatisfied with their own parties, they might experiment in a mid-term election. That is a pattern seen over the decades” Dr Reidy says.
One of the factors people will be asking over the coming years is what a government with Sinn Féin in it might look like. Of this, there is a degree of vagueness. Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams said this week that it is not a socialist party, “but we want a socialist republic”.
One of the consequences of its anticipated success this weekend might be to bring a renewed focus on how it might govern. There is every likelihood that if it set itself up as potential coalition parties in the Dáil, its policies would move closer to the centre.
For now, all the indicators are that when the votes are counted this weekend, people will have opted in large numbers to “make the change” and deliver a resounding boost for Sinn Féin. Whether the change is lasting or fleeting is something that will be a defining story in Irish politics over the coming two years.
For the latest election news and analysis visit our special Election 2014 section.
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