Time we faced up to environmental challenges

An EPA report highlights the potential impact of rising sea levels over the next 100 years, writes Frank McGovern.

THE recent storms and floods have caused much havoc and personal trauma for those whose lives and livelihoods have been damaged by these events. The financial costs are also increasing with each storm front that hits us. These events have also reawakened media interest in climate change.

Among many commentators, the focus of the debate has been on “is it or isn’t it” climate change.

Climate change is a factor, particularly in the unusual severity of the events, but there are other factors also at play. So, the answer is, as usual, not a simple yes or no. These events should also dispel some myths that climate change might be good for Ireland. In simple terms, through massive emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, we have managed to change the Earth’s climate for the foreseeable future. The global average temperature has increased by almost 1ºC in the last 100 years. Such a change in temperature is insignificant in our daily lives but, on a planetary scale, it is enormous, particularly when our planet has so many oceans.

Indeed, our oceans are saving us in many ways, including by taking up about 30% of the carbon dioxide we have pumped into the atmosphere. They have also taken up 90% of the extra energy we are now trapping in the Earth’s climate system.

This is not without consequences. Water expands when heated. Warming of the ocean is the main cause of the recent global sea-level rise. This has been a factor in the devastation of our coastal cities and communities. The 2013 EPA research report, The Status of Ireland’s Climate, shows the extent of sea-level rise in this area of the North Atlantic. Sea-level rise in the period since 1960 has been conservatively put at between 1.7mm and 2mm per year. This suggests an overall rise of 80mm to 100mm.

This analysis does not take into account factors such as how the increase is manifested when high tides are channelled up through river systems during storm surges. However, it is not a surprise that high tide records have been broken all around Ireland. These records are likely to continue to be broken throughout this century.

The recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not provide comfort for the future. Regardless of what we do about greenhouse gas emissions, in the next years and decades, the sea-level will continue to increase until the end of this century and beyond. Unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases will mean coastal areas facing further flooding and erosion problems.

The analysis of costs is bound to be more speculative. A recent EPA report suggests that the cost of impact will be in the order of billions of euro. The reality is that economic, social, and environmental costs of either protection of coastal infrastructure or moving it to another location are enormous. The extent to which this will be necessary is not known. This is largely because we don’t know how effective global actions will be in addressing the causes of climate change.

There are no easy answers to this challenge. The response needs to be both pragmatic and visionary. In relation to the consequences, there has to be an immediate response to devastation caused by recent events and a considered process for planning the longer transition to a climate-resilient Ireland, including sustainable management of coastal areas. This requires co-operation with local groups’ key socioeconomic sectors and institutions as well as EU partners.

Actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by all sectors, including agriculture, which is itself one of the most vulnerable to climate change, are needed in Ireland and globally. The 2013 secretariat from the National Economic and Social Council suggested Ireland should embrace a vision of carbon neutrality by 2050.

This is the sort of vision Ireland can bring to the EU and global table, along with humanitarian and practical solutions to address the impacts and reduce vulnerabilities.

It is in our own interest to address the diverse challenges of climate change in a positive manner. Doing so will open up opportunities. Not doing so means that the responses will be increasingly limited, fraught, and costly.

* Dr Frank McGovern is head of climate change research at the Environmental Protection Agency.