Cowen loses voters’ respect and his first year as leader may be his last

ONE year ago, expectations for Brian Cowen, as leader of Fianna Fáil and the country, were immense.

He had umpteen years of ministerial experience. His qualities included intelligence and a fine legal mind. He was articulate, personable and self-assured. Those who knew him best, the people of Laois/Offaly, gave him the highest personal vote anywhere in the last election.

Hopes were high that his style would contrast favourably with Bertie Ahern’s. The grammar and diction shortcomings would be replaced with lucid eloquence. The fog of ambiguity would be replaced with straight talking. The unsustainable decade of political deal-making, consensus and compromise would give way to no-nonsense leadership and firm direction from the top.

In any analysis of Cowen’s year as Taoiseach, it is only fair to acknowledge how brutally tough the job is. The level of stress and distress as the worst problems end up on your desk takes a heavy personal toll. The hours are unending. The competing demands for your attention and time are intense. Commuting from Dublin to Tullamore adds to the strain. This top job is lonely and gruesome.

It’s obvious Cowen is not enjoying himself. Both in opposition and government portfolios he was never happier than during his period in Foreign Affairs. He was within his comfort zone in the world of diplomacy in Brussels and Belfast. The socialising and networking in Iveagh House and embassies were ideal for his conviviality. Over the past year he seemed to have a smile on his face only when on foreign trips in Washington, China or Prague.

Any new leader will look to push out the boat on the “vision thing”. Cowen initially set his stall out in relation to the Irish language and a sense of community. “Events, dear boy…” determine political performance, however. The extent of the global collapse of the banking sector and equity markets would have shaken any incumbent government. External forces have created havoc for the Irish economy and consequently the FF/Green government. They keep pretending this is the sole cause of our woes. They refuse to accept responsibility and blame.

Cowen has made numerous serious errors over the past year. The Lisbon Treaty campaign was ineffective, delayed and complacent. Cowen has to take the principal culpability for the referendum defeat.

He was in denial up to February of this year about the extent of the Irish economic crisis. He was patently more concerned with protecting his legacy as minister for finance than confronting the fiscal crisis head-on. He personally sealed the deal on the partnership pay agreement in September. The 6% increase over 20 months was completely out of tune with labour market realities. The Government had to renege on this within six months.

The October budget was ill prepared and rushed. It failed to achieve financial stability. Further emergency budgets had to be constructed.

On a myriad of micro issues the Government was forced to do U-turns. A U-turn means you got it wrong the first or the second time (eg, the medical card withdrawal for pensioners).

He dithered and declined to give a ‘state of the nation’ television address. He hasn’t communicated directly to the people the volte face of economic correction.

His cabinet appointments and replacements have been at best questionable. The Tánaiste is perceived as a weak link. A second reshuffle of junior ministers was deemed necessary within the year. All this has created personal bitterness on the backbenches.

In the Dáil chamber, Cowen has allowed his opponents to get under his skin. Sound bites of temper tantrums and belligerence do not play well with voters. It is arrogant, not authoritative. The “f**kers” quip lacked finesse.

Cowen repeatedly promised in Finance and as Taoiseach an agenda of public service reform. He has failed to deliver on any meaningful practical change in terms of cost, procedure or practices.

The most corrosive damage to Cowen’s leadership has been his loss of authority. His public persona was based on being forthright, blunt and even unpopular. During the last general election campaign he relished the combative pugnacious attacks on the FG/Labour proposals. He was effective and successful. He turned the momentum of that election around.

For Cowen to lose popularity is not a problem. He was never a people-pleaser. However, now he has lost the respect of voters. This is the cornerstone of credibility for a head of state.

How has this happened? People cannot accept his reassurances as accurate. Every forecast he and the Government have made over the past three years has been laughably wrong. The forecasts of the live register of unemployed and tax revenues have been so erroneous that ordinary people just don’t believe the Government has a proper grip on the deteriorating economic situation.

Similarly with the banks. Cowen and Lenihan assured us in late September the state guarantee to six Irish banks would be enough to ensure stability. In January, Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised and we were reassured this was the most toxic feature dealt with. The €7bn recapitalisation of AIB and BoI was then brought forward. In the spring they pledged a whole new regulatory bank commission.

Then, just when we were promised sufficient steps had been taken, we have NAMA. Taxpayers are being obliged to take on up to €90bn of bad bank loans. The overriding impression is that Cowen and Co are making it up as they go along. They are reacting to events rather than controlling them.

Their credibility has been so battered and bruised on the budgetary arithmetic and banking bailout that I fear their electoral fortunes are irrecoverable.

FIANNA Fáil foot soldiers, canvassers and candidates are enduring unspeakable grief at the doorsteps. I hear the anecdotes of anger and hostility are truly abusive.

Opinion polls throughout the year have benchmarked their declining fortunes. From an initial bounce of almost 50% approval, the party and leader has sunk to a 20% rating. For Cowen the worst is yet to come.

What’s the worst-case scenario on count day, June 6? FF humiliated into third place or worse in the two Dublin by-elections. The loss of up to two MEP seats – in North West and Eoin Ryan in Dublin. More than 40 city and county councillors to lose their seats. If this comes to pass it would be the worst electoral outcome for FF since 1922. This would create an earthquake within the party.

Many of the 70 TDs will calculate their personal prospects and fear the worst. The Green party may anticipate the game is up – if the ship goes down they will want to be the first onto the lifeboats.

I have a hunch: Cowen has an underlying acceptance that the next general election is already lost. Perhaps he has reconciled himself to the fate of not being elected Taoiseach by the people. Others in FF accept, after 12 years of continuous government, that they are exhausted. Cowen’s first year as leader may be his last.