Paul Hosford: How will Leo Varadkar's new-look Cabinet shape up when he resumes his role as Taoiseach?
While it is likely that the Green Party ministers will stay in place, Leo Varadkar may favour a radical overhaul of his Cabinet before the next general election. Picture: Julien Behal/PA Wire
With the budget now just weeks away, speculation is set to turn to another moment in Irish political history.
On December 15, Leo Varadkar returns to take over as Taoiseach. It will mark the first time that such a changeover has ever happened midstream in a Coalition term.
While everyone at this point knows and accepts that Mr Varadkar will take back the office that he held until the 2020 general election, speculation abounds about how the rest of the Cabinet might shape up after this handover.
Already within the parties, there are differing views on how large a shakeup it might actually be. There is some suggestion in Fine Gael that Mr Varadkar will favour a radical overhaul of his Cabinet in a bid to freshen up Fine Gael before the next general election.
The would-be Taoiseach is said to be cognisant of the fact that many of his senior Cabinet have been public figures for over a decade.
Within Fianna Fáil, the speculation focuses largely on one issue, and that is where current Taoiseach Micheál Martin will land. Stepping back from the top office, Mr Martin will take up a ministry — a unique situation that causes a large number of ramifications which must be considered within the context of the overall Cabinet.
There is speculation that Mr Martin would be minded to take over a number of departments and will have the pick of the crop.
For his own part, speaking to this paper in July, Mr Martin said that he has not considered which he will take. Fianna Fáil sources have privately suggested that he may be attracted to either the Department of Foreign Affairs or Higher Education, though some question whether he would take the latter as it isn't a heavy hitter, despite it being a pet project of the current Taoiseach.
Mr Martin has done the foreign affairs job and is fondly remembered by civil servants in that department.
If he is, however, foreign affairs is a tough sell because Mr Martin will be aware of how much planning can go on amongst disaffected backbenchers while the leader is out of the country. Ask former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore about how being Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs can go when you're trying to fight a rearguard action at home.
A straight swap into Mr Varadkar's Business, Enterprise and Trade would be attractive. There are jobs announcements aplenty and the chance to be seen often, but would the Taoiseach worry that a straight swap looks like a demotion?
The reshuffle has been likened to a game of chess and, in that regard, Mr Martin is a key piece.
Within Fianna Fáil, everything else hinges on where Mr Martin lands, though he is considered unlikely to have a wholesale clearout, largely due to arithmetic. This being a three-party Coaltion, Mr Martin has just five senior jobs to give to TDs, and all five have incumbents in whom he has pledged confidence.
The largest question for Mr Martin hangs over Health Minister Stephen Donnelly. Having expended significant political capital to make him a minister, there is a thinking that Mr Martin would be loathed to ditch the Wicklow man after half a term, lest it look weak.
But, on the other hand, there is a feeling that whatever deal the pair had when Mr Donnelly joined the Fianna Fáil ranks has now expired, and the Taoiseach will waste no time in cutting bait with the minister, who became a focal point for public anger during the pandemic with a couple of high-profile media missteps.
As for a replacement? There is a growing sense across all three Coalition parties that the current chief whip, Jack Chambers, is a ready-made replacement. He has medical training (though that hasn't always worked at the department), is young, and recently moderated his previous opposition to abortion. His term as chief whip has been popular and he recently spent weeks traversing the country in his role as junior minister for sport.
Another name mentioned has been Dara Calleary, who recently returned to a ministerial role following a stint in agriculture cut short by golfgate. His return to the senior ranks could come too soon and he may be returned to the super-junior ministerial position if Mr Chambers is elevated.
It seems likely that Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue and Education Minister Norma Foley would be kept in situ, as would Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien — though Mr Varadkar has hinted that his party might want that portfolio back.
After Mr Martin, Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath's position is the next most complicated. He is due to swap roles with Paschal Donohoe and become Finance Minister when the changeover happens.
However, there is a growing narrative within Fine Gael that Mr Donohoe's role as chairman of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers makes his removal a fool's errand. However, Mr McGrath is likely to point to the fact that this role can be filled by an expenditure minister, and will be undeterred by the notion that Mr Donohoe is indispensable.
And that is if Mr Donohoe is returned to Cabinet at all. Some in Fine Gael are now speculating that if Mr Varadkar wants to "go big", he may part with not just the popular Mr Donohoe, but with Simon Coveney too. Mr Coveney has insulated Mr Varadkar from internal criticism, but some backbench TDs are not pleased with his handling of passport backlogs, and may be happy to see him thrown overboard. If they go, the likes of Peter Burke and Damien English would be looking to step up.
Justice Minister Helen McEntee is due to go on maternity leave and there is a convention that the Attorney General and Justice Minister not be from the same party in a Coalition, but a solution here that has been floated is to leave Paul Gallagher in his role and promote Jennifer Carroll MacNeil to chief whip and a junior justice minister, allowing Heather Humphreys to resume her dual mandate but with Ms Carroll MacNeil in place.
Then there is the question of Mr Varadkar's heir apparent Simon Harris. Does he lose him from Cabinet, potentially risking a rival with more time on his hands? Or does he slot him into a tougher, more criticism-prone ministry such as housing?
For the Greens, it is likely all three ministers will stay in place. Sources said that leader Eamon Ryan recently asked his colleagues if they would fancy a portfolio change and was told both Roderic O'Gorman and Catherine Martin were happy where they were.
There are many pieces to move, but just like a game of chess, each comes with potential threats and dangers. The next few weeks will see the leaders begin to formulate those moves, at least privately, before the endgame in December.
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